Daily write-up - Mar 17th (Cheltenham Day 4)

Day 4 of the Cheltenham festival.

The final day of what has already been an amazing week.

We may not have had much luck, betting wise – but these 4 days are about so much more than that, and in every other respect, the festival has delivered in spades.

Every year, I’m apprehensive before it starts – but I then gradually settle in to it – and come Friday, I don’t want it to end !

This year I feel no different – despite yesterdays heartbreak !

Apparently there has been no overnight rain, so the ground is likely to be riding similar to yesterday.

All horses should be able to act on it – though obviously those with a preference for soft ground, tend to find things happening a bit too quickly…

I’ve ended up with 9 tips on the day – spread across 4 races – so a similar strategy to the one I’ve adopted for most of the week.

I’ve not tipped anything in the Gold Cup: it looks wide open to me – and I would suggest that if you have a fancy for it, you just go for it !

Here are my thoughts on the days races…

Cheltenham

1:30 The outcome of this race, is likely to be decided by the state of the ground.
J P McManus owns the two markets leaders: Defi du Seuil and Charlie Parcs - with the former wanting soft and the latter, quick conditions.

Assuming the ground will be riding as it was yesterday, then it’s not easy to choose between the pair (which presumably is why they are both running)…

A number of the other main protagonists also have very specific ground requirements.

Like Charlie Parcs, Master Blueyes and Landofhopeandglory both want it quick: whilst Mega Fortune would prefer a bog !

Ignoring underfoot preferences, then Defi du Seuil has the best form in the book: though the stable confidence in Charlie Parcs seems quite significant.

I also wouldn’t be surprised to see momentum build behind Landofhopeandglory (JPs third runner in the race).

Despite an impressive win last time at Kempton (when Charlie Parcs was a faller), I’m not sure that Cheltenham will really suit Master Blueyes.

Whilst I doubt Mega Fortune will be quick enough - though he will definitely get up the hill.

You have to get quite creative if you look outside the 5 mentioned – with Ex Patriot probably the most interesting of those at big prices.

In truth, it is an easy enough race to duck.

Based on form, Defi de Seuil should win – but his form has all been achieved on a very different surface to the one he will encounter today.

He might be just as good on a quicker surface – but then again, he might not…

Similarly, the positive noises concerning Charlie Parcs are difficult to ignore – but we really should be betting based on what we’ve seen, rather than what we’ve heard…

Ultimately the market is likely tell which one of JPs 3 is ‘expected’ – but we don’t have that knowledge, so sitting out the race seems the sensible option.

2:10 As you would expect, there are plenty in this who can be given a chance.

Narrowing down the race with a short list, isn’t easy – so I’m just going to side with 3 at big prices…

Wakea is the first of them.

He hasn’t run since November – and he finished well behind Mick Jazz at Navan, on that occasion. However, the market didn’t expect that to be the case – and he is significantly better off at the weights today.

On his previous run, he had bolted up in a fair contest at Down Royal.
That was on decent ground – and I suspect he hasn’t been seen during the winter months because he has a preference for good ground.

In truth, it is impossible to know whether he is well handicapped – however he was rated 104 at his peak on the flat – so based on that, a hurdle rating of 142, should be workable.

I particularly like the booking of Donagh Meyler, as his 3lb claim is a gift…

The next one I want on side, is Court Minstrel.

I suspect that he will win a race this spring – and I’m just hoping it will be this one !

He is now 10 years old, but I don’t think he has lost much of his ability.

He has very specific ground requirements however – and must have good ground.
When he gets that, then he is very nearly top class.

His last win was off a mark 4lb higher than he races off today, so there is no doubt he is well handicapped.

He is normally ridden by Paul Moloney – and he does seem well suited to Moloneys hold up style – so it will be interesting to see how he gets on with Adam Wedge.

He is a risky one for sure – but at odds of 40/1, I think we can take the odd risk…

The final one I want on side, is Vosne Romanee.

He hasn’t run over hurdles since May – though he did win on the AW at Wolverhampton, just last month.

He’s not an easy one to get a handle on – but he was definitely progressive when running over hurdles, last spring – and his recent flat victory suggests he could still be on an upward curve.

I initially had some concerns over his ability to get up the Cheltenham hill – but if he is maturing, then hopefully that won’t be an issue.

As with the 2 others, I think he has a chance – and he is a decent price.

Of the market leaders, then Ivanovich Gorbachov, looks the most interesting - particularly if he is backed. Though support for JPs other runner, Winter Escape, probably shouldn’t be ignored.

Song Light is most definitely one to consider for a pre-race back with a view to laying in running (he’s a very strong traveller) – and he may even be able to get a place.

There are also a couple of eye catchers in the race, with both Jaleo and Baltimore Rock having their final runs, as such.

The latter is returning to hurdles after some poor efforts over fences: whilst Jaleo probably needs further.

2:50 Gordon Elliott has already had 5 winners this week, so the fact that he apparently considered Death Duty his best chance of the week, means that he has to be taken very seriously !

However, with the information in the public domain, there was never a chance that  there would be any value in his price.

He may win – but 2/1 is plenty short enough, considering he doesn’t have much in hand of a few of his rivals – and there are plenty in the race with scope for improvement.

Augusta Kate is the obvious one to oppose him with, as she may well have beaten him last time, if she hadn’t fallen at the last.

Wholestone is another for whom a solid case can be made – and he is certainly capable of at least placing.

The Worlds End and Tommy Rapper are 2 possible improvers – but so too is Any Drama.

He transferred into the care of Harry Fry at the start of the season and has run 3 times for him over hurdles, winning by wide margins on his 2 most recent starts.

He is not an easy one to get a handle on – but not only has he been visually impressive, he has also recorded good ratings.

Harry Fry trained the winner of this contest 12 months ago, so he knows what is required to win.

Quick ground would be a slight concern – though Any Drama handled it well enough last time at Exeter.
At 25/1, I think he offers some value to at least place, in a race which is probably more open than the betting suggests.

3:30 A little bit like the Champion hurdle on Tuesday, the Gold cup has got me stumped…

There have been so many twists and turns over the past few months, viewing the race objectively is now nearly impossible.

Taking a step back, then Cue Card is the best horse in the race – and maybe I should stop at that point !

At worst, he would have been second 12 months ago – and conditions will be perfect for him this afternoon.

However, he is now 11 years old – and that should be too old to be winning a Gold Cup.

That said, this could be a weak renewal – and Cue Card is a pretty special horse…

Djakadam is the race favourite - and probably the one to beat.

He has been placed in the last 2 runnings of the race – and has apparently had a better preparation this time round. He is also only 8 – so should be just about at his peak.
However, he is at his best on soft ground – and I have a feeling he might find another one too good for him this afternoon…

I would like to see Native River win – and there is a chance he will. Certainly he has done nothing wrong this season  - though the form of his 3 wins doesn’t stand up to the closet scrutiny.

That said, he is still improving - has an attitude to die for – and the main man in the saddle.

However, he is also held on running at last years festival, by Minella Rocco.

I have a feeling that Native River has subsequently improved – but all the same, at the prices on offer (4/1 and 16/1), it’s not hard to see where the value lies…

The trouble with Minella Rocco (apart from his suspect jumping !) is that he seems to be the Jonjo/JP second string , behind More of That.

It’s not an easy one to make a case for him – but if Jonjo reckons he is capable of going close, I would be inclined to take the hint.
Certainly based on his defeat of Annie Power in the World Hurdle a couple of years back, he has the latent ability to win a Gold Cup…

I find it difficult to separate Irish challengers Sizing John and Outlander.

Both have a chance of at least placing – but they will need to improve if they are to win (which is not impossible).

Both Champagne West and Bristol de Mai would much prefer soft ground, so it’s not easy to see either coming home in front.

The pace of the race may well have a big bearing in the result.

There are at least 4 who like to race prominently, so a lot will depend on how that ‘battle’ is resolved.

I suspect that Dickie and Native River will want to lead  – and if they are successful and aren’t harried up front, they will be difficult to pass.

That said, if they are forced to go too fast, then it will simply set the race up for the closers…

If forced, I would side with Cue Card to defy father time: though I would be very fearful of Minella Rocco, provided Noel Fehily can get him jumping (and if anyone can, it will be Noel).

4:10 In search of his third consecutive win in this race, it’s not too surprising that On the Fringe is a relatively short priced favourite.

He may well be up to the task – however he is now 12 years old and he only scraped home by a neck last year, so on balance, I think he is worth taking on…

Wonderful Charm is the obvious one with which to do so.
He is unbeaten in 2 hunter chases this season – and still rated 153 over fences (which is extremely high for a hunter chaser).

More than that, he is just 9 years old – so shouldn’t be in decline.

The main concern with him, is whether he will cope with 3m2f around Cheltenham, as he is really more of a 2m4f horse, whose stamina can be stretched to 3 miles, at a push !

If he does stay the trip, he is likely to win – but there has to be a doubt…

Ask the weatherman is third favourite for the race – and he has a completely different profile to Wonderful Charm.

He is a top class PTPer who has only run in one Hunter chase.

He nearly fell at the very first fence in that race – but he managed to stay on his feet and ultimately was an impressive winner.

It’s very difficult to get a handle on him, but he has top class connections and the likelihood is that he is pretty good.

Chances of placing, can be given to Pacha du Polder, Paint the Cloud and Grand Jesture (provide he consents to start !) – but the one that really interest me is Balnaslow…

I actually tipped him twice a couple of seasons back, when he was trained under rules by Willie Mullins.

He finished fourth on both occasions – firstly in the Thystes and then in the Kim Muir (at Cheltenham).

He also managed to finish third in a Galway Plate, behind Road to Riches, so he was a fair operator – as a peak rating of 137 testifies.

Obviously a lot of water has gone under the bridge since then – and he is now trained by Graham McKeever in Northern Ireland and running in PTPs.

A defeat of Foxrock, early in December, suggests that he is doing quite well in that sphere. And even though that form was reversed in a hunter chase at Down Royal a few weeks later, he lost little in defeat.
If he was eligible, Foxrock would be just about favourite for this race, having beaten On the Fringe on his most recent outing…

In fairness, I don’t think all of that form can be taken literally – but it does at least show that Balnaslow is operating in the ‘right’ circles – and has retained a fair chunk of ability.

The other really interesting aspect, is the booking of Derek O Connor.
As I’ve said previously, he is just about the best amateur around – and I’m sure he will have received numerous offers of other rides in this race.

Obviously, there is a fair amount of guesswork involved, but I can’t believe that there isn’t some serious value in a quote of 50/1 about Balnaslow.
Both based on his old form; his recent form; and his jockey booking.
Let’s hope I’m right !!

4:50 Of all the races at the festival this is arguably the hardest one to solve…

24 runners – many of whom are unexposed – ridden by conditional jockeys.

It’s a race for the brave – or the foolish !

Part of the issue with it, is that the runners tend to fall into 2 camps: those that are exposed – and those that are unexposed.

In its relatively brief history, just about all of the winners have fallen into the ‘unexposed’ category, so it makes sense to focus there.

My tendency is  to look for a horse with graded aspirations – as that level of ability can often be required to win.

In truth there are a few runners who meet that criteria – but I have settled on splitting stakes across two of them.

The first is Thomas Campbell.

He has only run 3 times over hurdles: winning on the first 2 occasions – before getting beaten when favourite for a grade 2 event at Ascot.

That was 3 months ago – and the fact that he has not run since is interesting.
Maybe there was a problem with him – or maybe he was deliberately saved for the better spring ground.

All 3 of his hurdles run have been over the minimum trip – but he has been staying on strongly at the end of each race (even the one he lost), so it is also interesting that he is stepped up in trip this afternoon.

Nicky Henderson has had a good festival – and he runs 3 in this race – with jockey bookings suggesting that Thomas Campbell is the stable first string (Ned Curtis is attached to the Henderson yard).

The other one I want on side, is Castello Sforza.

Like Thomas Campbell he has only run 3 times previously over hurdles – though he is yet to taste victory.

That said, he was favourite on each occasion – and finished in the placings (twice third and once second).

Possibly the most interesting thing about him is the fact that he finished fourth in last seasons Champion bumper.

Based on that run, an opening handicap mark of 138 looks very workable…

Of the others, then Castello Sforzas stablemate, Battleford, looks one to be fearful of.
He finished second in last seasons bumper – ahead of Castello Sforza – and is 3lb better off today.
However, he is more exposed of hurdles – and possibly not quite as progressive.

Of the more exposed runners, then Lac Fontana is potentially well handicapped; whilst Coo Star Sivola placed in last seasons Fred Winter and should run well today,  off a mark just 5b higher.

5:30 The final race of the festival – and it always presents a challenge !

That said, I’ve had quite a clear plan for the race, for quite some time…

It is based around Velvet Maker, who was sent off at just 8/1 for last years race – but faded after racing prominently to the second last…

In fairness, it wasn’t a bad run for an inexperienced novice – and I would be hopeful that he could significantly improve on it this time round.

He’s actually only been sighted once since then – when putting in a hugely eye catching run at Leopardstown, last month.

That was over hurdles – where he led and travelled really strongly, to the second last.

I still thought he might win at that point – but he faded close home and eventually finished third.

I’m sure that race will have had the desired effect of getting him spot on for today – and considering how the same connections prepared Tully East for his win on the opening day, I suspect he is the one to beat in this…

Ofcourse you always need a bit of luck – and whilst his prominent racing style should help in that respect, I think it is worth getting a second selection on side…

Rock the World also ran as a novice in this race 12 months ago – and he ran really well, in finishing third.

He didn’t have a great deal of luck in running that day either, so his effort can probably be marked up a little.

He’s another one with a marked preference for good ground – he also tends to run his best races fresh – so it is no surprise that he is coming into this race on the back of a 5 month break.

Granted a bit of luck, I would expect him to go very close…

Favourite Le Prezien is almost certainly well handicapped – but a suspect jumping novice, who tends to be held up, is not the ideal profile.

Dandridge looks to have been laid out for the race – and must have every chance of going one better than last years second, on ground he should relish.

Whilst at bigger prices, Calipto is a fascinating runner for Venetia – he has plenty of ability but very limited experience, which makes it a little hard to see him winning…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

Chel 2:10 Wakae 0.125pt EW 33/1

Chel 2:10 Court Minstrel 0.125pt win 40/1

Chel 2:10 Vose Romanee 0.125pt win 25/1

Chel 2:50 Any Drama 0.125pt EW 25/1

Chel 4:10 Balnaslow 0.125pt EW 50/1

Chel 4:50 Thomas Campbell 0.25pt win 18/1

Chel 4:50 Castello Sforza 0.125pt win 14/1

Chel 5:30 Velvet Maker 0.25pt win 14/1

Chel 5:30 Rock the World 0.125pt win 12/1

Mentions

Chel 3:30 Cue Card (C )

Chel 3:30 Minella Rocco (S )

Eye Catchers

Chel 2:10 Jaleo

Chel 2:10 Baltimore Rock

Chel 5:30 Velvet Maker