Daily write-up - Mar 18th

There are 5 NH meetings this afternoon: at Uttoxeter, Kempton, Fontwell and Newcastle in the UK – plus Limerick in Ireland.

And I remember when you could have a day off, after Cheltenham !!

There is some good racing as well – in fact, if I wasn’t suffering from ‘Cheltenham fatigue’, it’s the sot of racing that I would like to have a proper crack at.

However, I’m conscious of the fact that my mind probably isn’t at its sharpest today – so I will tread cautiously…

There is also rain in the air.

It has been refreshing not to have to worry about the state of the ground, over the past 4 days – but it has rained overnight at Uttoxeter – and there has been a going change, as a consequence.

I’ve ended up with 2 tips on the day. I did consider a third – but I’d decided against it, before is was declared a non runner.

There are also a few Mentions – and a few interesting eye catchers – so the day should act as a nice ‘warm down’ for you all !

Here are my thoughts.

Uttoxeter

2:25 This is a cracking novice handicap chase – and I’m not too surprised to see American installed as quite a short priced favourite.

He’s the kind of horse that all he ‘clever’ people latch on to. A supposedly ‘dark’ one, who has very specific requirements, which only the wise can see..!

The reality is, he’s talented – but fragile. He needs soft ground to be at his best – and his best is pretty ground.

He may be better than his current rating of 148 – but a few of his rivals may be better than theirs – and whilst I would respect his chances, I wouldn’t be interested in him at 2/1.

Crosspark, Baywing and Tanit River, are 3 others who really need it soft – so if that’s not the case, all 3 are likely to struggle…

Hainan is quite interesting – and his presence in the field could cause another issue for American, as I suspect he will want to front run (as does American).

He was very harshly treated for an emphatic victory on his penultimate outing – though it’s not impossible that he could still be competitive off his new mark.
It’s exactly the same case with Pougne Bobbi. He was hugely impressive at Ludlow 2 runs ago – but was handed a massive rise in the weights as a consequence.

He disappointed last time – but that was only 9 days after the Ludlow win.

He is also stepped up in trip by a mile today – which is an interesting move.

He is likely to travel well in the race, which could provide a back to lack in running opportunity.

Rock the Kasbah is a solid option – and I would expect him to run his race; whilst I wouldn’t completely dismiss Mustmeetalady.
He was an eye catcher 3 runs ago – and a tip last time at Newbury.

He disappointed on that occasion – but may appreciate todays better ground – and has cheekpieces applied for the first time.

He is 20lb better off with Hainan for a 16 length beating from when they met at Wetherby.
He is also significantly better off at the weights with both Crosspark and Baywing, who also ran in that race.

At the prices on offer, he is definitely the value call in the race…

3:00 KK Lexion is the one of most interest in this…

He was an eye catcher last time, when pulled up in desperate ground at Sandown.

He moved smoothly into a challenging position, after jumping the third last hurdle – but then just didn’t get home.

My feeling was that he wanted better ground – or a drop in trip - and he gets both this afternoon.

What he also gets however, is a 10lb claimer on his back, who is having only his third ever ride under rules…

I’m not sure what to make of that.

On the one hand, it could be a positive move, as it will significantly reduce the weight the horse has to carry – but on the other hand, he is very inexperienced.

I suspect the market will have a clearer view – and if it likes him, it might be worth taking the hint.

In fairness, this is quite a trappy race, so I’m not inclined to take too much of a risk.

Based on their running at Wincanton last month, KK Lexion may have his work cut out, coping with Fortunate George.

KK Lexion was 10 lengths superior that day – but Fortunate George is 11lb better off this afternoon – unless you take into account the claim of KK Lexions jockey..!

Others of interest in the race, are Ordo ab Chao, on his second run back after a long absence: and Sky Khan, on his first run for 4 months.

Certainly if the ground isn’t too soft, the latter is handicapped to go very close.

3:35 Maybe not quite as much as Lil Rockerfeller – but Mad Brian is another horse who will be inextricably linked with this particular TVB season…

On the back of a very promising run over hurdles, I tipped him in the Troytown at Navan, back in November – and was pretty keen on him that day.

However, he never really featured – and I decided that he maybe wasn’t the horse he once was…

As a consequence, I left him alone the next time he ran at Punchestown – and then again, on his most recent run, over hurdle at Navan.

That was a mistake !
Clearly there is plenty of life still left in the old boy and he travelled like a dream on the front end, before storming to a 15 length victory…

There is a big difference between 2m6f over hurdles and 4m1f over fences – but if Mad Brian is in the same form today, then I think he will take a bit of beating…

Certainly he is well enough handicapped to win – and whilst there is a slight doubt over him staying the trip, unless the ground is bottomless, I think he will be fine.

The other really big positive, is the booking of Richard Johnson.

That suggests to me that connections fancy their chances…

How the race works out, will depend on the state of the ground.

Provided it is just on the soft side, then top weight Houblon Des Obeaux could prove to be Mad Brians biggest danger. He is very well handicapped – and things will drop right for him sooner rather than later.

If the going has turned soft (or worse) by race time, then it will become a completely different contest.

Spookydooky and Mysteree would then become the ones to beat – though I could also see big runs from Final Nudge, Emperors Choice and even last years winner, Firebird Flyer.

4:10 Just a quick mention for Johnny Og in this (as I might make him a Fair bet !).

He’s a decent chaser who has lost his form over fences and runs in a novice hurdle here.

In terms of pure ability, then he is a match for any of these.
The application of a first time visor is interesting – and I suspect he will just go from the front.
He might not hang on – but he’s probably less than a 14/1 shot to do so !

Kempton

2:40 The first of 2 races on the card, run as consolations for horses balloted out of Cheltenham handicaps.

It’s a nice idea – but it always strikes me as a strange place to run them.

Cheltenham and Kempton could hardly be more different, as tracks: one is undulating and left handed – whist the other is flat and right handed.
Anyway, I digress !

This is a tough race to solve.

For a start, conditions are going to be very different to those we’ve had for the past few months, with the ground described as good (and I would expect that to be how it will ride).

Golden Spear has been installed as favourite – and Tony Martin is not someone who you want to be taking on lightly…

If he has targeted the horse at this race – and he expects it to win – then it is likely to be very well backed (unless of course, he has already backed it – in which case it might drift !)…

Aside from Golden Spear, I like the profile of Bandsman.

He beat last weekends Imperial Cup winner, London Prize, on his most recent outing – and based on that run, looks attractively handicapped off a mark of 129.

Alan King has a couple of interesting contenders in the shape of Keep in Line and Top Tug – and I wouldn’t be surprised to see both of them run well.

Whilst I could also see El Terremento running better than his odds imply…

All this said, it’s not a race on which I can form a strong opinion, so it is almost certainly best just to watch…

3:15 I might not have a strong view on the previous race, but I do on this one – and I’m pretty keen on Balybolley…

He was sent off favourite for the corresponding race 12 months ago – but could only finish third.

What’s more, he runs off an 8lb higher mark this afternoon – so his chance isn’t that obvious.

However, he runs off that higher mark because he absolutely bolted up in a decent handicap at Haydock, a week after the Kempton run.

Furthermore, that was when running off a 3lb higher mark – and as a result, his rating rose to 143.

The key to Balybolley is good ground – and ideally a flat track – and he gets both of those this afternoon.

Certainly, he wouldn’t have been suited by the soft ground when he ran at Newcastle 3 weeks ago and in the circumstances, he did well to finish third.

That was his first run for 3 months and so should have teed him up nicely for this…

His mark is now down to 134 – and that is just 5lb higher than the one he won from at Haydock.

Provided his jumping holds up, he should go very close…

In terms of his rivals, then I am happy to take on Sir Note, who is edging up the handicap (admittedly because he keeps on winning !); whilst Mercian Prince looked very good a couple of runs back – but not so good last time – and I wonder if his improvement has plateaued…

I tipped Max Ward over Christmas – but he disappointed me and I didn’t change my view on him, when he last ran at Newbury.

It’s not easy to construct a solid case for Monbeg Gold; and whilst I could see Long Lunch outrunning his odds, it’s harder to see him winning (though not completely impossible).

Romain de Senam is the biggest danger.

He is well handicapped based on his hurdles form – and whilst he disappointed last time, he can be forgiven that.

The bottom line however, is that this strikes me as the perfect race for Balybolley – and he looks both primed and handicapped to win.

At 5/1 he is a good bet.

3:50 A quick mention for Bugsie Malone, in this.
He was an eye catcher on his penultimate run at Newbury, before disappointing last time in the mud at Chepstow.

There must be a chance that he simply didn’t handle the conditions that day – and if he returns to the Newbury form this afternoon, I would expect him to go very close.

The only issue is that there are some dangerously handicapped horses in the race – and his price of 7/2 is pretty short…

Limerick

3:20 Another quick mention for another eye catcher…

This time it is old favourite, Tidy Zag.

He caught the eye 3 runs back at Limerick.

He disappointed on his next run at Gowran, before running really well again at Punchestown.

His most recent run was over 2m6f and that looked too far for him – he’s back to 2 miles today and that should be better…

His old legs will always be vulnerable to younger ones (particularly over the minimum trip) – but he should run well.

That said, a race where Charles Byrnes trains the well backed favourite and Davy Russell rides the well backed second favourite, is almost certainly one best just watched !

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

Uttx 3:35 Mad Brian 0.25pt win 14/1

Kemp 3:15 Balybolley 0.5pt win 5/1

Mentions

Uttx 4:10 Johnny Og (S )

Eye Catchers

Uttx 2:25 Mustmeetalady

Uttx 3:00 KK Lexion

Kemp 3:50 Bugsie Malone

Lim 3:20 Tidy Zag