Daily write-up - Mar 3rd

There are 2 NH meetings this afternoon: at Newbury and Doncaster.

The low key week continues with a couple more low key fixtures…

There is little of interest at Doncaster, where small field are generally the order of the day: Things are a bit better at Newbury – and there are some competitive handicaps.

That said, I’ve not managed to find anything which I would want to tip – even if I felt it was reasonable to do so.

However, there are a couple of eye catchers running – and also a couple of Mentions, so with a bit of creativity, it might be possible to find a wager (I will be trying at lunch time, on the Fair bets thread in the forum).

Here are my thoughts on the day.

Newbury

2:40 I was massively impressed by Benatar when he made a winning debut at Fontwell, early in January - so much so, that I suggested he might be worth a speculative play in the Neptune hurdle at the Cheltenham festival (NRNB, I hasten to add !).

His subsequent run at Huntington, suggests he may not be quite up to that level just yet – but I still suspect he is a fair talent.
That statement is likely to be fully tested this afternoon, as he takes on a horse with a big reputation, in the shape of Le Breuil – plus a reasonable benchmark in the shape of Woodfort.

In truth, I’ve no idea how he will get on.

I’ll be disappointed if he can’t beat Woodfort – but Le Breuil could be a different matter. Time alone will tell…

Benatar was very well backed when winning at Fontwell (as if defeat was out of the question) – and very weak in the market last time – so I suspect the market will advise on his fate.

Without knowing how that will go, then this has to be a watching race (if a potentially very interesting one !)

3:15 Keep Moving is the second eye catcher running this afternoon.

He caught the eye over todays course and distance in December – but hasn’t really built on that in his 2 subsequent runs.

In truth, I’m not really sure what to make of his chances in this…

It wouldn’t surprise me to see him run well – but equally, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him run poorly !!

It strikes me as that kind of race:

Based on her win at Wetherby last week, then Plaisir D’Amour is the one to beat.

But it remains to be seen whether she can follow up in a slightly better race, carrying 12st 2lb.

6/4 is a tight enough price, to be finding out…

The other 2 of interest are Greyboug and Red Devil Star.
Greyboug returned to form last time at Carlisle. If he can build on that, he will have a fair chance - though this is a stronger race.

Red Devil Star sets the benchmark for the race, based on his win in a similar contest on his penultimate outing.

Assuming he doesn’t suffer the same misfortune as last time (when he unseated through no fault of his own), I would expect him to go close – even if he is vulnerable from win perspective.

The bottom line is that I can’t really see an angle into the race from a betting perspective, so it has to be another one to watch…

3:50 This looks quite an open race.

I wouldn’t give much for the chances of Have a go Hero or Captainofindustry – but I reckon the other 7 runners all have possibilities.

In the circumstances, 2/1 about Behind the Wire would have minimal appeal – even though he obviously has a fair shout.

If I were to get involved with the race, then I would probably take a risk on Millanisi Boy and… Get Involved !

Neither one has a particularly obvious chance – but if you dig a little into their form, then a case can be constructed…

The case for Millanisi Boy is based around a couple of runs over hurdles: the first over todays course last season, when he finished second to Unowhatimeanharry: and the second, at Cheltenham in November, when he finished third to Clondaw Cian, in a hot handicap.

Both of those runs suggest that he is potentially well treated off a mark of 122 - with the possibility that he might be able to improve for fences…

Get Involved has horrible recent form figures (‘PPU’) – but prior to that, he had run some decent races.

Most notably, his second to Solstice Son on his chasing debut, at the Cheltenham April meeting, off a mark just 1lb higher than he runs off today.

Things haven’t happened for him since then – but there have been various possible reasons (fitness and soft ground).
It’s interesting that he’s been campaigned at a relatively high level – as that suggests he has more ability than he has shown.

If the first time cheek pieces sharpen him up this afternoon, then I could see him running better than the market expects.

Clearly he is risky – but I have the feeling the talent is there…

4:20 Debece is the one that most interests me in this – but the market has picked up on him.

He hasn’t run for 3 months – but was in good form when he was last seen, placing at both Aintree and Cheltenham.

Generally, his profile is progressive – and his stable of Tim Vaughan, is currently is good form.

I might have been prepared to take a chance on him at a price – but 3/1 is a bit too tight in a race where he faces a number of runners who are difficult to quantify.

Most of his rivals come from big stables and are relatively unexposed, so it’s difficult to categorically eliminate anything.

Quarenta is the obvious danger – though the market is likely to advise on his chances (the bookmakers have priced him up cautiously).

Reillys Minor also has a chance – though he seems to possess a bit of temperament as well. That said, he could be underestimated, as a result.

Western Sunrise would be the final one for my short list – though he hasn’t run for over 3 months and disappointed when he was last seen (suggesting there may have been a problem).

In truth, it’s another race which is probably best watched, as it is difficult to be adamant about very much !

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved this afternoon.

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

None

Mentions

Newb 3:50 Millanisi Boy

Newb 4:20 Debece

Eye Catchers

Newb 2:40 Benatar

Newb 3:15 Keep Moving