Daily write-up - Mar 16th (Cheltenham Day 3)

Day 3 of the Cheltenham festival.

The action switches to the new course today, which was apparently selectively watered last night.

Conditions may therefore not be quite as quick – though hopefully they won’t be much different to the first 2 days…

Today is probably the best betting day of the week, with 2 competitive handicap chases; an equally competitive handicap hurdle - and 4 decent conditions races.

I’ve responded with 7 tips across 5 races – not exactly all guns blazing – but everything is relative !

My expectation was that I would save the ‘Blazing guns’ for the Fair bets – but it’s not really working out that way.

Simply, I’m struggling for the time to do them justice – and they are ending up a bit of a hollow version of the tips.

In fairness, this month was always intended as merely a ‘voyage of discovery’ for the Fair bets.

And what I’ve discovered is that there is already too much in my Cheltenham days to handle them as I would like.

I’ll continue with them for the next 2 days – but please be aware if you are following, that I am rushing the selections, because I need to get on to studying the next days form, almost as soon as the write-up has been issued !

I really could do with there being a few more hours in the day !

Cheltenham

1:30 Yorkhill should be the one to beat in this – but his suspect jumping and the fact that Willie Mullins hasn’t been firing this week, cast question marks over him…

He was a hugely impressive winner of the Neptune hurdle at last seasons festival – and whilst that form might not be quite as good as it once appeared, it is still pretty decent.

If he could jump as well at Politologue, then he would almost certainly win. Rarely will you see a novice more fluent over his obstacles.

He looked exceptional on his first 2 outings this season – but his last 2 runs have put a doubt over his ability to stay 2m4f.
The quick ground will help – but the hill won’t…

There aren’t many question marks over Disko.
He has performed to a very high level in his last couple of races – and is a sound jumper.

The one slight concern, is quick ground. I would expect him to go on it – but he might lack a bit of pace.

I would make similar comments about Flying Angel.

He looked very good on his first run over fences – but then disappointed on his next 2 outings.

However, he was back to form last time at Warwick – and that run definitely gives him a chance.
The final one of interest is Top Notch.

Conditions should suit him perfectly, the only question is whether he is good enough to win…

In summary, I couldn’t have Politologue because I’m not convinced he will stay the trip (though he could be a back to lay in running option, as he jumps and travels).

If his jumping hold up, Yorkhill is the most likely winner – but at 6/4, he is too short, considering the worries.

I’ll be a little surprised if Top Notch is quite good enough to win – which leaves Disko and Flying Angel.
I doubt there is much between them (though Disko is the more consistent), so at 16/1, Flying Angel is the best bet in the race (possibly each way).

2:10 This is as tricky as you would expect, for a Pertemps final…

Connections of all of the runners have had to strike a balance between revealing sufficient to get into the race – whilst keeping enough up their sleeve to have a chance of winning it !

I would be fearful that both Gayebury, Tobefair and Presenting Percy revealed a bit too much in their last time wins – and the handicapper may now have a grip on them.

Jury Service on the other hand, seems to have played it just right – and he looks like the one to beat.

That said, 8/1 is plenty short enough, in a race such as this…

For Good Measure is the same price – and again, whilst I respect his chances, I couldn’t get involved at those odds.

I could be interested in Impulsive Star – though he is only a point longer in the betting and he may struggle with the quick ground…

Whilst Caid de Berlais is also quite interesting, returned to hurdles after a fall at the first fence in the Ultima chase, on Tuesday.

However, I am going to take a chance on Electric Concorde.

He won the series qualifier run at Leopardstown over Christmas.

Normally, winning a qualifier isn’t a good idea (because of the handicappers reaction) – but it was with him, as it meant he got his rating raised sufficiently to enable him to get into todays race !

As an inexperienced novice, he did really well to win that day – and it’s interesting that he beat a couple of todays rivals – Presenting Percy and Iselofhopesndreams.

Somewhat bizarrely, both of those horses are worse off at the weights with Electric Concorde this afternoon, due to subsequent wins (which resulted in a rise in their marks).

Electric Concorde has run once since then himself - but he was very disappointing.
That run needs to be ignored – but it’s the only time he has ever run poorly, so I’m happy to put it down as a one off.

Certainly, if he bounces back to form today, then I think he has a much better chance than his odds imply.

2:50 There is a disappointing line up for the Ryanair chase – caused, I suspect, by a few of the potential runners being diverted to the Gold Cup and Champion chase.

Un De Sceaux sets the standard for the race – and at 11/4 is arguably not a bad bet.

There is a slight doubt about him over the trip – and he might prefer softer ground – though I could actually see those 2 cancelling each other out.
The bigger worry is probably the form of the Willie Mullins stable.

That said, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him backed close to the off – and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him win…

Uxizandre has been well backed following his return from a long absence - but I’m not too keen on him. There is no disputing that he was once a very good horse – but he has only run once in the past 2 years.
There has to be a question mark regarding how much ability he retains.

Furthermore, he likes to front run – so the presence in the field of Josses Hill, is not likely to work in his favour…

If there is a pace war, then the one it will suit most, is Empire of Dirt.

He really wants bit further than todays trip – so if it does turn into a test of stamina, is should play into his hands.

He is much improved this season – and I would make him the most likely winner of this.

Unfortunately, he heads the market, and there is no value in a quote of 5/2.

Both Vaniteux and Alary are quite interesting, at big odds…

Each have a lot to prove – but this is hardly a vintage renewal.

With the Nicky Henderson stable flying, I could certainly see Vaniteux outrunning his odds, though it is a little off putting that Nico de Boinville has presumably opted to ride Josses Hill ahead of him.
Alary is riskier – but great things were expected of him when he joined the Tizzards and it is a little too early to be giving up on him completely…

At the prices on offer, then an each way play on Vaniteux probably holds most appeal…

3:30 Unowhatimenaharry is very much the one to beat in this.

He is unbeaten in 8 starts for Harry Fry – and more than that, seems to improve with every outing.

He is an admirable horse, who can go on any ground – and seems unconcerned by how a race pans out.

It’s not easy to find a way to beat him – and 11/8 is a perfectly fair price…

That said, it is not a price that I would feel overly comfortable about taking in a 13 runner Grade 1 event at the Cheltenham festival…

As Douvan demonstrated yesterday, they are not machines – and simply, you always need a bit of margin in the price, to allow for unforeseen issues…

In truth, as I’m sure most of you are aware, I was always going to take him on with Lil Rockerfeller…

He’s already had one crack at Unowhatimeanharry this season, at Ascot – and whilst he came up short, it was only by 4 lengths…

There is no real reason why Lil Rockerfeller should reverse that form – but even if he doesn’t 10/1 to place is a fair bit more attractive than 11/8 to win !

Furthermore, I do think there is a chance that Lil Rockerfeller will put in a personal best today.

He’s still only 6 – and he’s been given a nice break prior to this race (longer than originally planned - but that’s a different matter !).

If the race goes without incident, then I suspect Unowhatimeanharry will have his measure – but stranger things happen in this game…

With regard to the others: then Jezki has a theoretical chance – but he was off injured for a long time, prior to his recent return, and it will depend on him having retained a chunk of his former ability (which is unproven).

The ground has come right for former winner Cole Harden – and he won’t go down without a fight.

That said, he is more likely to set up the race for something ridden patiently…

Ballyoptic has a very good chance of placing, based on his run behind Unowhatimenaharry at Ascot – but if the favourite is to get beaten, I think it is most likely be by Nichols Canyon.

He’s a 7 times winner at Grade 1 level – and his third placing in last years Champion hurdle is probably the best form on offer in todays race.

If he is in peak form – and stays the trip – then he is more than capable of upsetting Unowhatimeanharry…

4:10 I’m quite keen on Thomas Crapper in this…

He was an eye catcher 3 runs ago, at Cheltenham – and came good on his final run as such, last time at Newbury.

He didn’t just win at Newbury either, he absolutely bolted up.

The margin of victory was 20 lengths – and that certainly didn’t flatter him.

Because this is an early closing race, he only incurs a 5lb penalty for the win. Given the chance, the handicapper would have him carrying an additional 6lb  - and I would quite fancy him even then !

It was very interesting listening to his trainer after the Newbury race. He said that Thomas Crapper had undergone a breathing operation a couple of months earlier – but he thought it has taken 2 or 3 runs for the horse it to realise that it wasn’t going to hurt when he exerted himself.

That made sense to me – and explained why he was able to put in such a huge performance.

He is already well proven over todays course and distance – and the drying ground will be in his favour.

His mark is effectively 133 – and that is a pound less than when he finished second in the novice handicap chase at this meeting 2 seasons ago.

He was only beaten by Irish Cavalier that day – and there was no shame in that, considering what that horse went on to achieve.

Granted luck in running, I will be very disappointed if he doesn’t go close this afternoon…

Hneryville is the other one that I want on side in the race…

He is a fair bit riskier – but I suspect he has the ability and is sufficiently well handicapped to win.

Certainly based on his fourth placing in the Pertemps final a couple of seasons back, his mark of 141 looks very workable.

He ran off 152 in that race – and was a bit unlucky not to win.

He has not been as good since he switched to fences – though 2 of his 3 runs this season have been very promising – and he is another who will love the drying ground.

Noel Fehily will ride a waiting race on him – so he will need some luck.

But if he gets that – and he’s on a going day – then nothing will be coming up the hill stronger…

The novices Diamond King and Starchitect head the market – and you have to respect their chances.

Both ran really well over hurdles at last season’s festival – and there is no doubt they are potentially well treated, based on their hurdles form.
However, neither strikes me as the most fluent jumper of a fence - and in a race like this, that could count against them…

Baron Alco jumps much better, for a novice – and he likes to race prominently, which is also a positive.
However, he is possibly not quite well enough handicapped to win…

If the ground were softer, I would give Kings Odyssey a big chance – but conditions seem to have gone against him: whilst Road to Respect was an eye catcher last time at Navan – but I expected to see him stepped up in trip after that, not dropped down…

Un Ace is the final one worthy of a mention. He is now well handicapped – and first time cheek pieces are an interesting addition. It is certainly not beyond him to sneak into the frame…

4:50 I’m not convinced that Lets Dance deserves to be a 6/4 shot in this…

She is just about the best mare in the race – as is confirmed by official ratings – but her superiority over her rivals is not massive.
It’s a similar situation to Cantlow yesterday – and whilst she is the most likely winner of the race, it’s not that hard to envisage her getting beaten…

Stablemate, Airlie Beach, appears to be her strongest rival – but the fact Ruby is on Lets Dance, would put me off her a little (accepting that he can’t get every call right).

Le Bague au Roi looks a very solid alternative.

She has only been beaten once in her life – and that was probably down to softer than ideal ground at Aintree, last spring.
She has been targeted at this race all season – and has the form to go very close.

One slight concern is the amount of potential pace in the race. Le Bague au Roi likes to lead – but she will struggle to do that.

However, provided she is prepared to settle in behind On Demand (the most likely leader), then she should go very close…

She is worth a small risk.
The other one I want to take a risk on, is the French challenger, Titi de Montmatre…

Obviously it is impossible to be categoric about her – but the fact she is sent over from France to contest this race, strikes me as interesting.

She has a very decent trainer (better known for his exploits on the flat) – and won a pair of graded races, when she was last seen, in the autumn.

On official ratings, she is right in the mix – and in a race where a shock looks a distinct possibility, I think she is worth a risk at a very big price.

5:30 The betting for this race is dominated by 3 horses: Squouateur, Mall Dini and Southfields Royal…

Squouateur was a monumental punt for last years Martin Pipe hurdle – but that came badly unstuck.

He’s over fences this time – and off a 6lb lower mark. He also has crack amateur, Jamie Codd, in the saddle – so it’s not too surprising he is again being backed.

However, it is a long time since he put in a decent performance – and his jumping is likely to be fully tested in this…

Southfield Royal ran third in last seasons 4 mile chase – form which has subsequently been made to look very strong.

He looks extremely well handicapped based on that run, off a mark of just 141 – but showed very little on his belated seasonal debut at Doncaster, in January.
If he bounces back to form, he could easily win this – but there is a sizeable question mark over him…

Arguably there is a question mark over Mall Dini – but I’m not so sure on that count…

He won the Pertemps final at last seasons festival – and runs off a mark just 4lb higher today.

He has been beaten in 5 novice chases Ireland this season – but they have all been run on unsuitably soft ground – and generally over too short a trip.

I’ve watched him very closely in each one – and he has travelled and jumped beautifully – just failing to pick up close home…

His whole season appears to have been geared around Cheltenham  – with his races so far, just enabling his handicap mark to be ‘worked on’…

I guess we’ll find out today – but I like him most of the ‘big 3’…

Away from the head of the market, Pendra is interesting in first time blinkers  - and with Derek O Connor on board: Hadrian’s Approach and Unioniste are both potentially well handicapped – though their main targets could be races other races, later in the season; whilst at a huge price, Balbir du Mathan catches my eye – and would definitely be worth a saver, if he gets backed…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

Chel 2:10 Electric Concorde 0.125pt EW 25/1

Chel 3:30 Lil Rockerfeller 0.125pt EW 40/1

Chel 4:10 Thomas Crapper 0.25pt win 12/1

Chel 4:10 Henryville 0.125pt win 28/1

Chel 4:50 Le Bague Au Roi 0.125pt EW 10/1

Chel 4:50 Titi de Montmatre 0.125pt EW 40/1

Chel 5:30 Mall Dini 0.375pt win 7/1

Mentions

Chel 1:30 Flying Angel (O )

Chel 2:50 Vaniteux (O )

Eye Catchers

Chel 2:50 Aso

Chel 4:10 Road to Respect

Chel 4:10 Henryville