Daily write-up - Feb 9th

There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: at Huntingdon and Doncaster in the UK – plus Thurles in Ireland.

Some days the racing really grabs you and you spot lots of horses that you think have big chances – and on other days, that doesn’t happen…

Today is definitely a day, which falls into the latter camp !

In fairness, the racing is not much worse that it is on many mid week days – but I just can’t see many horses or angles of interest…

That said, there are 3 eye catchers running – and a couple of them do warrant a few comments – so the day isn’t completely barren.

However there were never going to be any tips – and there aren’t even any official Mentions !

I bet you are all now really looking forward to reading todays thoughts !!

Huntingdon

2:20 I put Benatar up in the forum, as an unofficial ante post selection for the Neptune hurdle at the Cheltenham festival and I’m really pleased to see him running in this.

To be honest, I’ve no idea whether he will be good enough to win – or even feature in the finish – but then again, neither does anyone else !

He’s only had one run over hurdles – when winning comfortably at Fontwell, despite doing almost everything wrong - so we should learn plenty about him this afternoon.

He is taking on some serious horses this afternoon – chief amongst them, Messire des Obeaux.

He is already a Grade 1 winner – and is currently third favourite for the Neptune hurdle.

He has to give Benatar (and the other runners) 8lb – but he could well be up to the task…

Simply, this has to be a watching race.

However, what I like about it, is that if Benatar does beat Messire des Obeaux (or even run him close), then he will almost certainly shorten significantly in the betting for the Neptune hurdle; if on the other hand, he is well beaten, then I would doubt he will run in that race.

As he was suggested NRNB, that would see us getting our stakes back – so a classic case of heads you win: tails you probably don’t lose !

2:50 There is another eye catcher running this, in the shape of Leoncavallo.

It’s an absolute ago sine he caught the eye in the pre-season, but the fact he has only run twice since then, means he is still on the list.

To be honest, I would be quite cool on him today.

It’s over 2 months since he last ran – and that was when pulling up at Aintree. He doesn’t look particular well handicapped – and the form of his run when he was an eye catcher, doesn’t looks as good as it did at the time…

Protek des Flos looks very much the one to beat in this race.
He burst on to the scene when winning a grade 2 event on trials day at Cheltenham, last January.

Who Dares Wins finished over 3 lengths behind him that day – but meets him on 3lb worse terms today.

Strictly on the book, he should have little chance of reversing the form.

In fact, strictly on the book, Protek des Flos looks a potentially well handicapped horse off  a mark of 137.

That said, he’s not run over hurdles since last March – and his one outing over fences this season, was most disappointing.

It’s very interesting that Barry Geraghty travels to Huntingdon simply to ride him –and that in itself seems to be a bit of a tip.

Despite its value, this doesn’t look a particularly strong race.

Allee Bleue sets the standard on his win last week at Leicester – but this is likely to be a very different test (and one that might come soon enough for him).

Gibralfaro and Kalondra should both run their races: whilst I could see Sleepy Haven running better than his dismissive odds suggest.

However, I think the race is all about Protek des Flos.

Using the form book, it is possibly to argue a very strong case for him – and Barry Geraghty in the saddle seems to back that up.

At 9/4, he is borderline Top Pick material, as I think he will win – I just don’t feel totally comfortable with the level of guesswork that is required, with regards to his current form…

Doncaster

1:55 There’s yet another eye catcher running in this, in the shape of Carli King…

He’s caught the eye on his last 2 outings: firstly at Carlisle, when he couldn’t cope with a pace war; and then at Warwick, when he wasn’t fast enough over the 3 mile trip.
He’s over 3 miles again today – which I don’t think is ideal.

However, he sports first time blinkers – and that makes him interesting…

He’s worn cheek pieces in the past – but blinkers are a different beast and could certainly gee him up.

If they do, then there is potentially an angle on him in this race – even if only as a back to lay in running.

I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t try to make all – and he is certainly sufficiently well handicapped to win a race of this nature.

The question mark concerns his current form – but I don’t think he’s been running as badly as his form figure imply.

There is no doubt he is risky – but he’s a general 33/1 shot (bigger on BF) so that’s to be expected…

Pithivier and Twojayslad are the most likely race winners – though Cabragh could also be interesting, provided the ground isn’t too soft.

However, those 3 head the market, so there is nothing too earth shattering there.

I would rather back Carli King pre-race, with a view to laying off in running – and leaving a ‘free bet’ - just in case he is able to fully bounce back to form today…

 

3:30 Abbreviate sets the standard in this, on his most recent run at Ascot, behind Kalondra.
He was well held that day – but it was his first run of the season, and there was plenty to like about the way he stayed on in the closing stages.
I can see him being suited by todays step up in trip – and he looks the one to beat.
That said, the market has picked up on him and there is no value in a quote of 10/3 against some rivals who are difficult to quantify.

Chief amongst those, is the Nicky Henderson trained Swoop to Conquer.

He as only run 3 times previously over hurdles and makes his handicap debut today, stepping up in trip by a mile.

If the market likes him, he will probably win…

Three Ways is another one who is stepping up in trip – and he has some decent form. However, he seemed to struggle the only other time he tried 3 miles, so that would have to be a doubt with him today.

At a bigger price, Souriyan catches the eye.

Again there is a lot of guesswork – but he is making his debut for Peter Bowen and is his only runner on the card (and son Sean’s, only ride).

He would also become very interesting – if the market took a liking to him…

In short, there is far too much uncertainty to consider getting involved.

The default winner is Abbreviate – but market support for any of the other 3 mentioned, would definitely make them of interest…

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved today.

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

None

Mentions

None

Eye Catchers

Hunt 2:20 Benatar

Hunt 2:50 Leoncavallo

Donc 1:55 Carli King