Daily write-up - Feb 26th

There are 4 NH meetings today: at Kempton, Newcastle and Chepstow in the UK – plus Fairyhouse in Ireland.

It’s bit of a strange day, in so much as there are a handful of really good races – and a lot of poor ones !

There is also significant variation in the likely going, with is described at ‘Heavy’ at Newcastle – and ‘Good’ at Kempton.

I hope that’s how it turns out, as I’ve based all my analysis on that assumption !

I’ve ended up with 4 tips on the day, in 3 races – additionally, there are quite a few Mentions – though once again, no eye catchers (I think I need to start looking a bit harder for some new ones !).

The ‘Fair bets’ got off to an inauspicious start in the forum – but I’m not going to read too much into that.

I’ll judge them in a months time – and even that may be too early (though it’s as long as I’ve got !).

I’m happy with the process for picking them – and comfortable that they are usable – so hopefully the write-ups will be able to point them in the right direction…

Here are my thoughts on the days main races.

Kempton

1:15 I think it is worth taking a small risk on Apple of our Eye, in this.

He’s only run 6 times over hurdles – and had been progressing nicely until his most recent run at Doncaster.

That was at the end of November – and he ran really poorly.

In fact, the run was so poor, I suspect that something must have been amiss…

The fact he’s not been seen for 3 months, certainly suggests that was the case – and it is plenty long enough for him to have undergone a small procedure, in the meantime…

Ofcourse I’m guessing on that score – but it’s an educated guess !

If we ignore that run, then I like his profile. I also like the enthusiastic way he races and I would expect him to run a big race.
Whether he will be good enough to win, is a different matter.

It’s almost impossible to quantify half the field in this, so you couldn’t be adamant about anything.

Alan King, Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson saddle 2 runners apiece – and trying to figure out the ‘live‘ ones, is not an easy task…
Crimson Arc is interesting on his return to hurdling – though he has an absence of 119 days to defy.
That said, there are 3 runners in the field who have been off the track for even longer…

I’m sure the market will provide guidance on their chances: as it will probably do on the runners who are making their handicap debuts…

My feeling is that whilst there could be a very well handicapped one in this, a number of the runners will just be having a run…

I don’t think that’s the case with Apple of our Eye – and although he may not be quite good enough to win, under conditions that should suit him perfectly, I suspect he has a good chance of at least placing…

1:50 Charli Parcs is clearly the one to beat in this - but Evening Hush is a very interesting EW option against him.

Charli Parcs has only run once over hurdles in this country - when bolting up on his debut for Nicky Henderson over todays course and distance, at Christmas.
He really couldn’t have been more impressive that day – and based on that run it will take a very good one to beat him this afternoon.

Evening Hush may not be quite good enough to do that – but I would be optimistic that she will be good enough to at least give him a race.

On the figures, there is not a lot between the pair – and the front running style of Evening Hush, should be well suited by the sharp Kempton course.

Unfortunately, she’s not absolutely guaranteed to be suited by the likely good ground – but as an ex flat horse, it will be a little surprising if she can’t handle it.

I’d be pretty confident that she is at least the second best horse in the race - my only concern would be if she paid a price for trying to beat Charli Parcs (and ended up fading badly, close home).

In truth, the 2 of them do seem to stand a fair way clear of their rivals, so it’s really a question of figuring out the best way to play things…

An EW bet on Evening Hush is the simplest option: though backing her without Charli Parcs in the race is another.

3:35 I’d very much like to get involved with this race – but I’m struggling to see an angle…

My original 2 against the field were Viva Steve and Ballykan – and whilst I expect them to run well, I am a little fearful that both are vulnerable from a win perspective.

They both ran in the race 12 months ago and finished a fair way behind Theatre Guide. However, they are better off at the weights today – and strictly on the book, have a good chance of reversing the form.

I actually think they will: Viva Steve, because he is now under the care of Fergal O’Brien (and seems to have improved for the stable switch); and Ballykan because he was an inexperienced 6 year old last year, so is now likely to be a better horse.

Barry Geraghty is also a very eye catching jockey booking for Viva Steve, and I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t run well.

The only trouble is, at just 8/1, I see minimal margin in his price.

I’m put off Ballykan, primarily by his jockey booking.

When the decs originally came through, Jamie Bargary was down to ride. I was surprised that Daryl Jacob was not on board – but would have accepted Bargary as a substitute.
He’s very good value for his 3lb claim – and I just can’t view Willie Twiston Davies in the saddle, as a positive.

Outside of those 2, there are at least half a dozen horses that I could good a chance to.

Double Shuffle is the obvious one – and a worthy favourite – but Aso, Three Musketeers and Irish Saint, have all got win potential.

More than that, the likes of Opening Batsman, Cocktails at Dawn and Triolo D’Alene have enough back-class to go very close, if they are on a going day…

The betting might ultimately provide some guidance – certainly with regard to Three Musketeers and Triolo D’Alene - but without that, it has to be a watching race…

4:10 I might have beaten Tom Segal to the punch with Berea Boru and Russe Blanc – but he’s got his own back in this, with Ballycoe…

He tipped it in the Racing Posts newsletter ‘The Punt’ – and its price promptly crashed from 14/1 to 7/1 best, this morning…

That’s a real shame, because this looks a very winnable race – and the conditions should suit Ballycoe perfectly…

That wasn’t the case the last time he ran, at Sandown in January.

The ground was very soft that day and Ballycoe just didn’t act on it.

He had run much better on his previous outing at Aintree, early in December - and if he can return to that level of form, he will go close in this.

Full Shift has been installed favourite for the race – and based on some of his form from last year, he would bolt up in this.
However, he has been disappointing this season – as the application of both a tongue tie and cheek pieces, confirm.

I wouldn’t generally be keen on a horse like Sir Note, as he has gone up the handicap for winning a relative modest race. However, this is such a weak contest, there is a lot to be said for being in form and being able to act in the conditions (and he has ticks in both of those boxes).

I suspect the best way to play the race, is to back Ballycoe, around lunchtime (queue a Fair bet !).

By that point, the impact of Tom Segal picking him will have waned – so if he is still strong in the market, it will be genuine money – and if he’s not, you’ll get a better price !

Newcastle

2:45 I’m quite keen on Berea Boru in this…

I had an eye on him for the Welsh National, earlier in the season – but he clearly came to hand a bit too late and didn’t make the race.

Instead he made his seasonal debut at Haydock, a week earlier – ridden by a 7lb claimer.
Needless to say, he never featured…

Next time out, he ran in the Peter Marsh chase, again at Haydock.

This time Sean Bowen was on board – and Berea Boru ran much better.

He ultimately finished well held – but it was a very strong race and he still had half a chance turning in.
I suspect that will have put him cherry ripe for today – and he gets to run from a mark 9lb lower (he ran from out of the handicap, last time).

Sean Bowen rides again – and he’s travelled a long way for just one ride, particularly considering that there is racing at Chepstow (which is much closer to home !),.
The fitting of a first time visor looks very interesting – and the horse should relish the stamina test.

He looked massively progressive this time last year –and gets to run today from a mark just 2lb higher than for his last win.

I did hope that he might slip under the radar – and the early 40/1 might still be there this morning. However, it soon became clear that wasn’t the case – though hopefully most of you managed to at least secure 20/1 (which is still decent value).

The other one I like in the race, is Russe Blanc.
There isn’t quite the same story to tell with him – simply he will relish the conditions and is reasonably handicapped based on his win in the Classic chase at Warwick, last season.

He runs off a mark just 3lb higher today – and it could be argued that having Brian Hughes in the saddle rather than Charlie Poste, offsets the additional burden.

He is certainly worth having on side as a saver…

As you would expect in a race such as this, there are plenty of others who can be given a chance.

Streets of Promise and Mysteree are both particularly interesting, for the Michael Scudamore stable.

That said, I am more than happy with Berea Boru and Russe Blanc.

If they get that bit of luck which is always required in a race such as this, I am optimistic they can both go very close.

4:30 I would be quite keen to take on race favourite, Ballybolley, in this, as I just can’t see him coping with very heavy ground.

The question is, what to side with…

Special Wells is the obvious one – even though he is edging up the weights.
He has won his last 2 races – and even though he steps up a class today, he still may be up to the task.

The trouble is, 4/1 is a tight price…

Eastview Boy has an excellent record at Newcastle – and whilst he has a lot of ground to make up on Special Wells from their run at Wetherby, last month, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him run well.
That said, the 2 who interest me most, are Caraline and The Ramblin Kid.

Both are trained by Micky Hammond – and the suggestion from jockey bookings, is that Caraline is the stables number one hope.

That is probably the case – and I think he has a decent chance.

Certainly, he was in very good form this time last year – and has now slipped to a mark where he may be capable of winning again.

However, it is The Rambling Kid who really grabs my attention.

He is potentially very well handicapped - and his best form has been at Newcastle.

The trouble is, he is having his first run for over a year – and has no great record fresh.

He’s one who could only be backed late, if there was market confidence – but if the market does like him, then I would expect him to run a very big race.

Chepstow

3:40 I’ve said before, but these Pertemps qualifiers are strange races…

In order to qualify for the final at Cheltenham, a horse has to finish in the first 6 in a qualifier.
In all probability, it also has to be rated at least 135.

Gordon Elliot will have sent Jury Duty over to run in this race, as it is his last chance of qualify for the final.

However, the horse is already rated high enough to get into the race, so there is little incentive for him to win today (he just needs a top 6 finish).
In fact, if he does win today, his chance of winning the final will reduce (as his handicap mark will rise).

We therefore have a race favourite, with a good reason for not winning !

The tricky bit is picking the one that will win – but I think the field can be thinned out a fair bit…

I would suggest that the 6 to focus on are Soupy Soups, Gayebury, Abbreviate, Red Hanrahan, Ballyculla – and possibly Surtee du Berlais.

Although he was backed last night, Ballyculla was just about the biggest priced of those this morning (excluding Surtee du Berlais) – and just about my preferred choice in the race.

He is very well handicapped based on his old form (he has been competitive off a mark of 133 – and runs off 127 today) – and has a decent 7lb claimer in the saddle.

He also ran really well last time, in a good race at Sandown, staying on strongly at the end, in a manner that suggests the more demanding Chepstow course, should suit him well.

I’ll be very surprised if he doesn’t run a big race this afternoon – the question is just whether he will be good enough to win.

I did consider putting him up EW – but 2/1 to place seems short when there are so many variables to consider (some of you may not agree with this statement !).

Of the others, then Gayebury is the one I would fear most (but he is second favourite); whilst Soupy Soups has now drifted to a price which makes him quite interesting…

4:15 This is a really tight race – and it’s not easy to see much of an angle…

We were on Grey Gold earlier this month, when he beat Bright New Dawn (and Bold Henry).
Conditions were perfect for him that day – and I wouldn’t be sure he will be able to confirm the form with Bright New Dawn, this afternoon on 4lb worse terms.

Module is another one who we have been with previously this season. However, he disappointed on both occasions and whilst he could easily bounce back today, it’s guesswork as to how much ability he retains.

I suspect that Pearls Legend and Canicallyouback, will struggle in the heavy ground – which leaves Sew on Target.

If he gets the run of the race, he could prove very difficult to beat.

He should love conditions and is very well handicapped. However he is now 12 years old, and possibly in decline…

In truth, it is probably a race best left alone.

I would nominate Bright New Dawn as the most likely winner - but he is favourite – and vulnerable to 2 or 3 of his rivals if things fall right for them…

Fairyhouse

3:30 I’d love to get involved with Baie des Iles in this.

She did us a huge favour when winning at Punchestown earlier this month – and must have every chance of following up this afternoon.

However, that was in a much weaker race than todays – and she was over 3 times the price…

I think she has a very good chance of winning this afternoon – but there is minimal margin in a price of 5/2.

Katie Walsh rode a brilliant race on her that day – and it won’t be easy for her to repeat this afternoon.

More than that, even if she does, Pleasant Company and Wounded Warrior are class animals and they won’t be easily shrugged off.
She also has the ex Gold cup winner, Lord Windermere, to deal with…

All this said, I do think that Baie des Iles is the most likely winner – and I can fully understand the price.

I just can’t quite bring myself to get involved with her at those kind of odds…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

DT Kemp 1:15 Apple of our Eye 0.125pt EW 25/1

BRT Newc 2:25 Berea Boru 0.25pt win, 0.125pt palce 25/1

BRT Newc 2:25 Russe Blanc 0.125pt win 14/1

DT Chep 3:40 Ballyculla 0.25pt win 9/1

Mentions

Kemp 1:50 Evening Hush EW

Kemp 3:35 Viva Steve (O )

Kemp 4:10 Ballycoe (P )

Newc 4:30 The Ramblin Kid (S )

Fairy 3:30 Baie des Iles (P )