Daily write-up - Feb 18th

There are 4 NH meetings today: Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton in the UK – Plus Gowran Park in Ireland.

With the Cheltenham festival almost exactly a month away, it’s maybe not too surprising that there are lots of good horses out.

Plenty of them will be having their final outing before the big meeting, with some needing a win – or at least a very big performance – in order to book their place.

With a glut of decent races, the challenge was getting through them and trying to find the best opportunities for tips.

I’ve ended up with 6 on the day, across 5 races – which is quite a lot.

However, the races are there to be tipped in today – and that hasn’t been the case very often in recent weeks.

Here are my thoughts on the main races…

Ascot

1:50 I was a little surprised to see Flintham installed the outsider of the field for this.

On official ratings, there’s not much between the 6 runners – and he certainly has as much potential as any of the other runners.

He is actually an official eye catcher, from his run last time at Chepstow.

Admittedly, that was only in a handicap – but it was his first run of the season, and he jumped and travelled with real purpose.

In fact, leaving the back straight, he looked the most likely winner – but he didn’t get home…

Hopefully that was just because he needed the run. Certainly he has the stamina to cope with 3 miles – and he loves soft ground – so the only other possibility is a physical issue.

Nothing was reported subsequently – and the fact he is running again 4 weeks later, makes me think he simply blew up.

If he is on song, I can see him trying to take this race from the front – in the same way that his full brother, Carruthers did, 8 years ago…

In terms of his opponents, then Arpege D’Alene is the race favourite - but he doesn’t set an insurmountable standard.

Label des Obeaux looks a more likely danger to me – but again, he’s hardly a world beater.

I really feel that this is a race which Flintham should be capable of winning – provided he is on his ‘A’ game this afternoon…

2:25 I could be just as keen on O’Faolains Boy in this – if I could be sure he was ready to do himself justice.

Certainly he is well enough handicapped to win – and has ticks in plenty of other boxes.

However, he has been off the course since last March – and his target is the Grand National.

The suggestion seems to be that he will need the run – though I’ve little doubt that the betting will advise more accurately, close to the off…

Unfortunately, eliminating him from calculations, leaves a much trickier puzzle…

I could see Sausalito Sunrise and Tenor Nivernais both running good races – but neither look handicapped to win.

Go Conquer and Chef D’Oeuvre look the 2 with the most potential – but they head the betting.

I’m half tempted by Virak – as he is becoming well handicapped and has form over today’s course and distance.
However, he’s not been in the best of form this season – so will need to bounce back this afternoon.

It’s not an easy race to call – unless O’Faolains Boy is strong in the market, in which case, I think he will win…

3:00 This race isn’t as competitive as the numbers suggest – as around half the field have significant question marks over them.

For example, Ordo ab Chao is returning from  nearly 2 years off the track – whilst Oscar Hoof has an even longer absence to overcome.

The market will likely guide on their chances – as it will on the chances of Loup de Louvre, Cyrname and Wolf Catcher – to name but 3 more…

Templeross undoubtedly sets the standard for the race, on the back of his second in the Lanzarote hurdle at Kempton.

He’s only 3lb higher today – and Jamie Bargary retains the ride.

However, with so much uncertainty in the race, rather than back him at 9/2 today, my suggestion is to back him for the Martin Pipe race at the Cheltenham festival – NRNB.

If he wins today, I would expect him to be much shorter for that race than the 20/1 currently available – and if he doesn’t win today, he is unlikely to run in it !

If I could be sure that all 16 would go to post, I would take an EW chance on Man of Plenty…

He has been in very good form recently - and should run his race this afternoon.

In truth, I struggle to see him being quite good enough to win – but I don’t struggle on seeing him place.

At 20/1, ¼ odds the first 4, he would have plenty of appeal – but if there is a non runner (and that must be likely), the place terms will be much less attractive.

3:35 Cue Card should really be much too good for his rivals in this – but with a slight question mark over him, following his below par run in the King George, you couldn’t be interested at 1/2.

If he does under-perform, then Taquin De Seuil is the one most likely to take advantage - but again, the market is fully aware of that…

Royal Regatta has very good course form and is likely to try and make all.

However, he shouldn’t really be good enough to win a race of this nature.

Simply, the race is Cue Cards to lose – and hopefully he will be in good enough form to be able to take it comfortably…

4:10 This is another race which I don’t think is as competitive as the numbers suggest.

Fortunate George sets the standard on his last 2 placed runs. They were both big efforts and the booking of Richard Johnson today, seems to signal intent.

However he is edging up the handicap and probably doesn’t have a lot in hand of his mark.

He likes to front run and I’ll be a little surprised if he isn’t placed – but I think he is vulnerable from a win perspective.

Joe Farrell is the one that really interests me…

Clearly well thought of when running in bumpers last season (he was sent off favourite in all 4 in which he ran), he was a good winner on his hurdling debut, first time up this season at Ffos Las.

He comfortably beat Keeper Hill that day – and that one has subsequently won a listed race and is now rated 139.

Joe Farrell races off a mark of 125 today – but that is because he hasn’t progressed in his two runs since his Ffos Las debut.

However, there were excuses for both runs: he was too free on the first occasion: and lost a shoe on the second.

He will need to settle today – but if Fortunate George puts pace to the race, that will help.

I like the booking of Jonathon Moore, who claims 3lb (he is over to ride all of the Rebecca Curtis horses at Ascot) – and simply, he looks a decent bet at the price available.

Haydock

2:40 This is one of the last qualifiers run, for the Pertemps final at the Cheltenham festival – and it’s not an easy race to figure out…

There are 3 runners from Ireland – who have presumably all come over to try and qualify for the final.

In theory, a top 6 finish is required to have a chance to get in – but as the lowest rated horse in last years race ran from a mark of 135, most of todays field will need a win in order to stand a chance of running in the race…

Ignoring all of the sub plots, Call to Order looks the most likely winner.

He won a decent race at Cheltenham back in December and must have a good chance today off a mark just 7lb higher.

The only thing that niggles me with him, is that it’s been over 2 months since he last ran…

Dadsintrouble was an impressive winner over this course last time – but it won’t be easy for him to overcome a 12lb weight rise.
Nordic Nymph has a great attitude and has won her 3 outings this season. I would expect her to run well again – but she is taking on a better class of opposition today.

I could see Theos Charm travelling well in his first time blinkers – but they may also mean he does too much early and doesn’t get home.

Charlie Stout is the one that interests me most at big odds.

He’s been progressing rapidly over the past couple of months – and takes a significant step up in trip this afternoon.

It’s impossible to construct a case for him via the form book – but I just have a feeling he will run better than his odds suggest.

3:15 I don’t really get the betting for this race…

Blaklion is favourite at 9/2, yet on his most recent outing, he finished behind Wakanda at Wetherby.

True, he is 2lb better off for a 3 length beating – but he was ridden by Jamie Bargary that day and if anyone is value for a 3lb claim, then he is.
I could actually argue that Blaklion is effectively worse off at the weights today with Wakanda  – but regardless, there should be little between the pair.

Certainly a disparity in odds of 9/2 and 12/1 is difficult to justify – particularly as there is a real chance that Wakanda will improve for todays longer trip.

The run at Wetherby seemed to signal a return to form for Wakanda.

He was very progressive in the early part of last season  - but things went wrong for him following a run at Cheltenham in January.

It’s taken a while for him to come back to form, but hopefully he is now back on an upward trajectory.

If he is, then he is well handicapped, as he runs today off a mark 1lb lower than the one he was successful from at Ascot, in December of last season.

In a race such as this, there are inevitably plenty of potential dangers.

That said, I would be hopeful that Wakanda will be able to take care of his stablemate Vintage Clouds, as I would expect Danny Cook to be riding the stable number 1 (and he rides Wakanada).

Of the other fancied horses, then I’m not convinced that Kruzhlinin is that well handicapped: whilst Goodtoknow almost certainly wants softer ground than he is likely to get.

Vieux Lion Rouge does rate a danger – and I would expect him to run well.

Vicente could also run well, if the ground is decent: whilst I wouldn’t dismiss Tour Des Champs too readily.
That said, the other one that really interest me, is Warrantor.

He was a little disappointing when finishing behind Tour Des Champs last time at Cheltenham.

However, I’m just not convinced that Cheltenham is his course.

He travels very strongly in his races and there must be a chance that he will be better suited by a flat track, like Haydock.

I was only going to mention him, but the fact that Gavin Sheehan is at Haydock to ride him – and not at Ascot where he could have had a couple of good rides – has persuaded me to put him up as a saver.

If Wakanda comes up short, then hopefully he will be able to deliver.

3:50 With a batch of unexposed potential improvers up against each other, this is not a race I would be inclined to get involve in.

However, there is an eye catcher in the field, in the shape of Ballyarthur, so I’ll just offer a quick view on him.

My feeling is that he is probably up against it this afternoon – though not completely without a chance.

The Worlds End has strong novice form: whilst I was very taken by Report to Base, when he ran at Cheltenham last time.

In receipt of weight, No Hassle Hoff is the one to beat, on the back of placed efforts in a couple of grade 2 events – though I wouldn’t be surprised to see him beaten.

If there were 8 runners, Ballyarthur would be worth considering EW – but with just 7 in the race, I’d just be inclined to watch…

4:20 Whilst superficially, this is a very tricky looking race, I think it will take a good one to beat Wuff…

He’s a horse who feels like he’s been round for ages - though he’s only had 10 runs under rules.

Originally trained by Tom George, he transferred to Paul Nicholls for a season, last year – but is now back in the care of George.

He was actually sent off favourite for this very race, 2 seasons ago – and running off the same mark as today.

He looked likely to win it as well - but tired close home.
Wuff is a big horse and I suspect he will always need his first run of this season.
That certainly seemed to be the case this time round, when he was again a beaten favourite.

That was over 2 miles and I’m pretty sure it was merely a sharpener for his main targets.

Simply, I just feel that he’s a fair bit better than his current rating of 128.

The 2m4f trip on softish ground will be perfect for him this afternoon – and he should be in top condition.

In truth, I could argue a case for most of his rivals – however, they have all also got question marks over them.

Tanit River was hugely impressive last time – but may not be suited by a drop back in trip: whilst Commis D’Office could be dangerous on his debut for Venetia – but we can only guess on the level of his ability.

Wincanton

2:45 It’ll be very surprising if Yanworth doesn’t manage to take this – though unless he wins with his head in his chest, we are unlikely to learn much…

On official ratings, he has plenty in hand of all of rivals – and should be well suited by the likely soft ground.

If it were quicker, then Sceau Royal could probably provide him with a test – but he ideally wants good ground.

Rayvin Black will likely ensure a good pace – and assuming the ground is on the soft side, then Ch’Tbello is most likely to follow Yanworth home…

3:20 I think it is worth taking a chance on Mckenzie’s Friend in this…

He was a decent novice hurdler last season – but probably started this season on too high a handicap mark as a consequence (125).

Despite that, he was very well backed on his seasonal debut, in a hot race over todays course and distance.

He never really featured that day; nor on his next run at Chepstow in December.
However, it was a different story on his most recent outing, again over todays course and distance.
That was a strange race, in so much as Tornado in Milan effectively stole it.
In the circumstances, Mckenzies Friend did very well to get into a challenging position rounding the home turn.
He faded up the straight – but he showed definite promise.

As a result of those 3 runs, the handicapper has dropped his mark by 11lb and he now looks attractively handicapped.

Persian Delight has been installed favourite for todays race.

That is on the back of 2 runs in novice hurdles - plus the fact he is trained by Paul Nicholls.

He may well be much better than his current rating of 123 – but he may not…

Walt is the other likely main danger – though again, his price is shorter than it really should be, because he has Barry Geraghty in the saddle (who has a very good record, when riding for trainer Neil Mulholland).

In short, McKenzuies Friend is a horse who is running into form – and is priced bigger than he should be because a couple of his rivals have more attractive profiles.

3:55 Grey Gold did us a favour last time at Sandown – but I think he will have his work cut out to follow up off a 4lb higher mark on ground that won’t suit him quite so well…

In fairness, his new handicap mark shouldn’t be beyond him – but he is now 12, and probably not as good as he once was.

I actually think Astre de la Cour is the one to beat in this.

He won well at Taunton – and then probably ran even better when pipped by Baby King over todays course and distance.

He has been raised 5lb for that effort – but won over hurdles at Aintree, off his current mark, so could well be up to defying it.

7/2 is a tight enough price in a race such as this – but as he is owned by one of our number (Stuart) I’ll be cheering him on, regardless of whether I have any money riding on him !

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

BRT Asc 1:50 Flintham 0.25pt win 12/1

DT Asc 4:10 Joe Farrell 0.25pt win 12/1

BRT Hayd 3:15 Wakanda 0.25pt win, 0.125pt place 12/1

BRT Hayd 3:15 Warrantor 0.125pt win 16/1

DT Hayd 4:20 Wuff 0.375pt win 5/1

DT Winc 3:20 McKenzies Friend 0.25pt win 11/1 (pre R4)

Mentions

Asc 2:25 O’Faolains Boy (C )

Asc 3:00 Templeross (P )

Asc 3:00 Man of Plenty EW (C )

Hayd 2:40 Call to Order (P )

Win 3:55 Astre de la Cour (P )

Eye Catchers

Asc 1:50 Flintham

Hayd 3:50 Ballyarthur