Daily write-up - Feb 16th

There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: at Leicester and Kelso in the UK – plus Clonmel in Ireland.

Kelso host their biggest meeting of the year – but very small fields have blighted it.

It should still be quite interesting – though finding a bet will be tricky.

From a punting perspective, the best card of the day is at Leicester.

I’m not sure exactly how the ground will ride. The going stick reading is 7.9 – which would normally suggest going on the firm side of good: however, I suspect it will actually be riding on the heavy side of soft !

For those of you who aren’t regular viewers, there was an interesting development in the forum yesterday…

Liam has been with the service for a number of years and has become very adept at interpreting the write-ups.

He spent a lot of time during his first couple of seasons with the service, trying to understand the nuisances of my writing – and I would now say that he reads me very well indeed (almost spookily so !).

Anyway, he is hoping to find the time, to post on the forum, the bets he gleans from the daily write-up.

I don’t want to build him up, just for a big fall – because ultimately, he can only be as good as I allow him to be.

However, I am more than happy with him interpreting my thoughts – and then turning them into bets which he makes visible to all.

As I said on the forum yesterday, the Mentions have been doing very well so far this year – with a decent profit, returned at SP – so the ammunition is there if you have the time/ability to interpret it (and Liam certainly has the ability – if not always the time).

Whatever, it will be very interesting to see how things go – and I’m sure it will also be interesting for some of you, to see how someone else interprets the write-ups…

Anyway, on to today.

No tips – but a few Mentions, for Liam – and the rest of you – to work with.

Here are my thoughts…

Leicester

3:10 Assuming the ground is on the heavy side, then I think that Mercian Prince and Crosspark are the two to concentrate on in this.

Certainly I don’t think Mad Jack Myton will be suited by very soft ground (in fact, he could well be taken out of the race): whilst Always on the Run is out of form – and Dark Flame ran badly last time…

Mercian Prince actually fell last time – but that was in a strong race at Cheltenham (Dark Flame was tailed off in the same race).

He was still in with a chance at the time, so provided he is non the worse for the fall, he must have a decent chance in todays weaker contest.

Crosspark was an official eye catcher on his penultimate run, when finishing second to Hainan at Wetherby.

That form isn’t as strong as that of Mercian Prince – but Crosspark still has plenty of potential – and will relish soft ground.

Like Mercian Prince, he failed to complete last time – unseating over this course – but if he gets round today, then I would expect him to go close.

The potential fly in the ointment is Morning Reggie.

I tipped him last time when he finished well behind Mercian Prince at Sandown.
He’s 10lb better off today – and wears first time blinkers.

It’s difficult to know if that will be sufficient for him to reverse the form.
Instinctively, I doubt it will – but I don’t feel he should be dismissed too readily…

That said, if I were to get involved with the race, it would probably be with Crosspark, who is slightly better value at 4/1, than Mercian Prince is at 2/1 – though both are priced shorter than I would like…

3:45 There may only be 4 runners. But this is a really fascinating novice chase.

Un Prophete has been very impressive in winning his last 2 races – but takes big step up in class this afternoon.

He may be up to the challenge – but I wouldn’t take 7/4 to find out.

Theatre Flame beat Champagne at Tara in a similar race at Newbury last month.
The winner is 4lb worse off today, which should make things close between the pair.

However, Champagne at Tara is a horse who prefers not to win – so even with the weight pull, he’s not easy to fancy.
That said, I couldn’t go mad on the chances of Theatre Flame – which leaves us with Winner Massagot…

He really should be up to winning a race such as this, from his current mark.
He’s had physical issues – but showed he was on his way back, when running well at Doncaster last time.
If he can build on that – and provided he has no issues with todays ground – I would make him the one to beat.

Whether he is worth backing at 5/2 however, is a different matter…

4:20 I feel that Song Saa should be taken on in this…

True she was impressive last time, when wining at Huntingdon – but that was on a sharper course, over 2 furlongs less and probably better ground.

The time before at Lingfield, she had failed to get home, having travelled strongly into the home straight.

I suspect that todays test will be right on the cusp of her stamina limitation – which means she makes no appeal at even money.

The trouble is, what to take her on with…

If Leicester was a left handed track, then I would have no hesitation in nominating Timons Tara.

She was a revelation on her penultimate outing when hacking up at Uttoxeter – before disappointing last time at Ludlow.
That was over hurdles – and I think she is better over fences – but I also think she is better going left handed.

That certainly appeared the case 3 runs ago, also at Ludlow, when she continually jumped to her left (on a right hand course).

If she can jump straight – and the ground is heavy – I think she can upset Song Saa.

However, they are a couple of pretty big doubts.

Unfortunately, nothing else really stands out in the race.

Money Maid could win if Song Saa doesn’t get home – and Timons Tara doesn’t handle the track – but I would struggle to get involved, based on that kind of thinking…

Kelso

2:25 I can’t help feeling that despite being 14 years old and a 20/1 shot, Knockara Beau has a bit of a chance in this…

It will very much depend on the ground being bottom-less – but if it is, I wouldn’t put it past him to cause a bit of a shock.

He’ll doubtless try to make all – and to an extent, it will depend on how well his rivals cope with conditions.

Born Survivor has certainly looked a little suspect under pressure on his 2 most recent runs; whilst Cyrus Darius still has a lot to prove on his second run back after 18 months on the sidelines.

One for Harry finished second in this race 12 months ago – and I would expect him to run his race again.

That said, he hardly sets an insurmountable standard.

Kockara Beau is likely to set his stall out from the off and try to run his rivals into the ground.

The trip is too short for him – and he is well into the veteran stage.

However, he retains a fair chunk of ability, will go in the ground – and faces rivals with question marks over them.
They may all cruise past him – and he could finish tailed off last – but then again…

At a big price, I wouldn’t put anyone off a tiny play.

3:35 Maxie T is the one I fancy in this – but he has already been found in the market.

He opened up at 5/1 last night – but you can’t beat 7/2 now.

The dilemma I always have in this situation, is whether there is any value in his current price.

Clearly there isn’t anywhere near as much as there was 12 hours ago – but that is obviously irrelevant (even if it does tend to play on my mind !).

I guess the problem is, I can’t be sure…

Rowdy Rocher is definitely a danger: as too is Rhymers Stone.
More than that, I can’t categorically rule out any of the others…

If his price drifts a little, then he might be worth a small play – but the margin at 7/2 is minimal…

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved this afternoon.

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

None

Mentions

Kels 2:25 Knockara Beau (S )

Kels 3:35 Maxie T (P )

Eye Catchers

Leic 3:10 Crosspark