Daily write-up - Apr 7th (Aintree day 2)

Day 2 of the Aintree Grand National meeting.

After yesterday, I’m not really sure what to expect, with regard to the ground.

It was definitely on the soft side – though a warm(ish) day, with a nice breeze, could well mean that it rides a little quicker today (assuming it’s not been watered overnight !).

There was no clear bias towards – or against – horses that had run at Cheltenham, so I’ll continue to treat each race on its own merits.

Generally, todays racing doesn’t lend itself particularly well to betting.

There are 2 or 3 races, where you would need to get quite creative if you were going to strike a wager: plus 2 massive field handicaps, where it’s not easy to decide on a betting strategy (never mind find the winner !).

I’ve ended up with 7 tips on the day – but spread across just the 3 races.

Here are my thoughts.

Aintree

1:40 When the opening show appeared for this race, I was sure I was going to be issuing a big tip…

Sky Khan was installed at 50/1 (66/1 in a place !) – and on quick ground, off a mark 10lb lower than he ran from when fourth in this race 12 months ago, he held huge appeal – each way.

However, the price started to collapse during the afternoon – and by 5:00, even beating 20/1 wasn’t easy.

Pricewise putting him up was the final nail in the coffin and at a best price of 14/1 this morning, he was the same odds to win, as he had been to place, a few hours earlier !

Such is life…

I did consider having a token 0.5pt win on him – but I think he is far more likely to place than he is to win, and 4/1 on that happening, has limited appeal…

Instead, I decided to simply try and find the most likely winner of the race – and I opted for Dream Berry.

He looks an improving sort – and ran well last time when third to Brio Conti in the Cheltenham consolation race, run at Kempton.

Part of the attraction with him, is that Barry Geraghty appears to have chosen him in preference to Geordie des Champs - and I thought that one had a fair chance…

In addition to him, I also want Crystal Lad on side.

He ran a really big race last time, when fourth to Minella Awards in the NH novice final at Sandown.

He went 3 lengths clear approaching the second last that day, but tired up the Sandown hill.

On quicker ground and ridden with a little more restraint, I can see him going close this afternoon.

In truth, he should struggle to beat Dashing Oscar, based on their run at Sandown in December.

He was beaten a neck that day – and is 4lb worse off this afternoon.

However, I suspect that Crystal Lad is the more progressive of the pair…

In addition to the 2 tips, there are also 3 eye catchers running in the race, in the shape of Thomas Campbell, Hawk High and Mad Jack Mytton.

Thomas Campbell is the race favourite – but I’m happy to oppose him over todays trip, at a sharp course like Aintree. I think he needs more of a test of stamina.

Mad Jack Mytton will doubtless travel well (and therefore could be one to play in running) – but I’m not sure he will be up to winning.

I would give Hawk High the best chance of the 3 – and wouldn’t put anyone off a small play on him.

Certainty, if the ground is quick – and he has come on for his run at Cheltenham I could see him running a big race.

2:20 This is an interesting race – but one in which it’s quite hard to have a strong opinion.

River Wylde, Mountain Mews and Moon Racer appear to be the 3 to focus on – but they have very different profiles.

River Wylde represents the Cheltenham Supreme Novice form – a race in which he finished a creditable third.

In absolute terms, that is a fair standard – but it shouldn’t be insurmountable.

Moon Racer was ante post favourite for the Supreme – but ended up running in the Champion instead.

However, he disappointed in that race, and was pulled up before the third last.
Even if he bounces back to his best, I think it is questionable whether he will be good enough to win.

It’s also questionable whether Mountain Mews will be good enough – but that’s because he has not had chance to prove how good he is.

He’s looked very good in his last 2 victories – and his connections are not inclined to tilt at windmills.
Of the 3, I would have a slight preference for Mountain Mews.

Outside of them, then it’s possible that The Unit could improve sufficiently to get involved: whilst I also wouldn’t be too surprised to see Pingshu run better than his odds suggest.

He ended up well beaten in the Supreme – but travelled quite nicely until making a mistake at the second last. 

2:50 This looks a 2 horse race – between Might Bite and Whisper.

They finished first and second in a dramatic RSA chase at Cheltenham, when Might Bite looked sure to hack up, until running sideways up the final hill !

It says much for his ability that he was able to get back up and win, after looking to have thrown the race away – but it also says much for his temperament that he nearly threw the race away in the first place !

Clearly he is a huge talented – but he is also very quirky.

As a consequence, this is an impossible race to bet in.

If Might Bite puts his best foot forward he will win comfortably – but if he doesn’t then Whisper is more than good enough to take advantage.
It won’t help Might Bites chance, that the wily Davy Russell is riding Whisper.

If there is a jockey capable of winning a race that he shouldn’t – then it is Davy !

It simply has to be a watching race – though it could well make for fascinating viewing !

3:25 I’m a little disappointed that I can’t find a route into this race…

Fox Norton, Sub Lieutenant and Gods Own head the market – and a case can be made for each of them.

Of the 3, I would have a slight preference for Sub Lieutenant, who I feel is the most progressive and has just about the strongest form.

However, he had a hard enough race at Cheltenham, and 3/1 is not a price that sets the pulse racing…

If Royal Regatta weren’t in the race, I would take a chance on Uxizandre.

He disappointed last time at Cheltenham, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him bounce back from that.

The refitting of a visor almost certainly means he will try to make all – but so too will Royal Regatta and it’s anyone’s guess how that will work out.

In fairness, both horses have a top jockey in the saddle, so I suspect they will find a way no to overly compromise their chances.

However, at this level, you need everything to fall right and unless Royal Regatta is held up, that’s not going to happen…

Half chances can be given to most of the other runners - depending on how the race pans out – but it’s not easy to make a particularly strong case for any of them.

4:05 30 runners – and it’s easy enough to make a case for at least a dozen of them.
To say this is a tough race to tackle, is a bit of an understatement !

The other issue is that the betting looks generally about right – with the strongest candidates heading the market.

I decided to take 4 against the field – all win only – and hope that one of them comes good.

Gold Present and Henryville strike me as the 2 most likely to win.

The former was an eye catcher last time at Cheltenham when finishing runner up to Tully East.

That looked strong form at the time – and Double Ws and Bun Doran boosted it further with their efforts yesterday.

Gold Present is young and progressive: he jumps well (touch wood !) – and comes from the stable of Nicky Henderson, who has a very good record in this race.
What is there not to like ?!?

Henryville is more exposed – but ran with real credit over todays course and distance, when third to As de Mee in the Grand Sefton, in December.

He is 8lb better off at the weights with As de Mee for 7 lengths and there shouldn’t be much between the 2 of them. However, everything went right for As de Mee that day, whereas Henryville made at least one significant mistake.

Henryville has run once since then, in the Brown Advisory Plate at Cheltenham.

He travelled really strongly in that race – but didn’t get the clearest of passages towards the end of the race.

I’m sure he has a race of this nature in him off his current mark – and hopefully he will demonstrate that today.

In addition to those 2, I also want 2 more speculative ones on side at bigger prices…

The first is last years winners, Eastlake.

He bolted up in this race 12 months ago – and whilst he has to run from a 10lb higher mark this afternoon, he may well be up to it.

For a start, he has since won from a mark just 4lb lower than he races off today, when winning at Cheltenham 3 runs ago.

He also ran really well last time, in the Grand Annual, from a mark 2lb higher than todays.

With his ability in the conditions proven, he is worth a risk at a price.

The final one I want on side, is Vintage Vinnie.

The angle with him is freshness – as he is a horse who performs best after a break.

It is 4 months since he last ran – in the Grand Sefton – and whilst he ultimately finished well beaten that day, he was right in the mix, until the second last fence.

That run showed that he can handle the fences – and it looks as if he has been saved for this race.

Of the others, then Balykan and Go Conquer are two more official eye catchers running in the race.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see them both perform well – with Go Conquer in particular, looking to have a very good chance (though that is reflected in his price).

Bouvreuil and As de Mee give Paul Nicholls a very strong hand – and again, I could see them both running extremely well.

Thomas Brown and Katnap are the final 2 that I will mention. Both come with risks – but are capable of big runs.

4:40 The Worlds End, Constantine Boy and West Approach head the market in this – but non of them look bomb proof…

The Worlds End is favourite on the back of a fall in the Albert Bartlett, when he still looked to be travelling well – but it’s anyones guess how he would have come home that day.

Constantine Boy finished fourth in that race – having been hampered by the fall of The Worlds End.

It was a creditable performance – but the standard doesn’t look insurmountable.
West Approach ran in the Stayers hurdle – but was pulled up.

On his earlier form with Wholestone, there shouldn’t be much between him and Constantine Boy.

Rather than get involved with any of those 3 at relatively short prices, I would be more inclined to take a risk on one of the next 3 in the betting: Moulin a Vent, Debece and Beyond Conceit.

They all arrive here via a less conventional path – but I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see one of them step up to the level of the 3 market leaders.

Moulin a Vent is the one that interests me most…

He is an unexposed 5 year old, with only 6 runs under rules – and just 4 over hurdles.

Despite his inexperience, he has already shown some decent form – even though his jumping hasn’t been particularly good.

Apparently that has been worked on – and I would also expect him to show improvement on todays better ground.

Certainly, if that is the case, then it would be no surprise to see him going very close.

I would struggle to choose between the other 2 – though I do think that Beyond Conceit already has form in the book which makes him look over priced at 16/1 (though Debece has the greater potential).

5:15 I was half tempted to take a couple of stabs at this, at big prices – but they would have been total guesses, so I resisted…

The 2 I considered were Carlos du Fruitier and Loud and Clear.

The former disappointed last time at Newcastle in heavy ground – but had looked good when winning on his debut at Warwick.

He could be worth a tiny play at 40/1...

It looks to me as if Loud and Clear has been targeted at this race – and the booking of flat jockey Martin Dwyer is particularly eye catching.

The trouble is, when I watched a replay of his win at Ayr in October, I wasn’t overly impressed – so I would be supporting him solely based on subtle signs.

Again, he is a big price (25/1) so may be worth a tiny play – but he would be difficult to tip.

Of the others, then Black Op strikes me as the most likely winner – but I couldn’t entertain getting involved with him at 7/2.

Whilst Run to Milan and Enniscoffey Oscar are 2 others who look interesting and are fair prices.

All this said, I do think it should probably be a watching race…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

Aint 1:40 Dream Berry 1pt win 12/1

Aint 1:40 Crystal Lad 0.5pt EW 25/1

Aint 4:05 Henryville 1pt win 12/1

Aint 4:05 Gold Present 1pt win 11/1

Aint 4:05 Eastlake 0.5pt win 16/1

Aint 4:05 Vintage Vinnie 0.5pt win 20/1

Aint 4:40 Moulin a Vent 1pt win 14/1

Mentions

Aint 2:20 Mountain Mews (P )

Aint 3:25 Uxizandre (C )

Aint 5:15 Loud and Clear (S )

Eye Catchers

Aint 1:40 Thomas Campbell

Aint 1:40 Hawk High

Aint 1:40 Mad Jack Mytton

Aint 4:05 Gold Present

Aint 4:05 Balykan

Aint 4:05 Go Conquer