Thursday 6 April 2017

Daily write-up - Apr 6th (Aintree day 1)

Day 1 of the Aintree Grand National meeting.

If nature had its way, I’m sure the meeting would open with quick going – but the clerk of the course is committed to ground ‘on the soft side of good’ – so I suspect that’s what we will get.

Finding winners at Aintree, always involves the same dilemma: do you side with horses who ran at Cheltenham – or do you side with horses who swerved that meeting ?
And if you opt for those in the former camp: do you go with horses who ran well at Cheltenham - or those who were expected to run well, but disappointed ? (hoping they will bounce back).
Historically, my preference has always been to side with horses saved for Aintree - but Cheltenham winners have done well over the past few seasons.

As a consequence, there doesn’t seem much concern over the condition of the horses that ran well at Cheltenham (even though that meeting was less than 3 weeks ago) – and a number of them have been put in at short prices today.

Ofcourse, they may all come good – but from a ‘value’ perspective, I can’t help but feel that at least a few of them, should be taken on…

I’ve tweaked the staking for this meeting, bringing it in line with the staking that I used for the Fair bets in the forum.

If I’m honest, I prefer it, as it gives me more options (I’d backed myself into a bit of a corner with the staking used during the main season).

I’ll need to make sure that I keep up the stake levels on any strong fancies – but that’s not really an issue today, as all of the tips are more value based.

I’ve ended up with 7 of them across 5 races – so it’s a busy day (as you would expect).

Here are my thoughts.


Aintree

1:45 The betting suggests that this race is likely to be fought out by Top Notch and Cloudy Dream.
The former was a strong finishing second to Yorkhill in the JLT at Cheltenham; whilst the latter was an admirable runner up to Altior in the Arkle.
Certainly, if they are in the same form today, then I would expect them to run very well – but both had pretty tough races, and therefore could be vulnerable.
I also wouldn’t be entirely convinced that Cloudy Dream will relish todays step up in trip – even at a sharper course.
At the odds on offer, I would rather have a small play on Frodon.
I suspect that Paul Nicholls will be going all out at this meeting, to try and secure the trainers championship and it looks as if Frodon has been saved for this race.
Based on official ratings, he’s got a good chance, as well.
He won the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup at Cheltenham, back in December – and has also won his last 2 races.
In the most recent one of those, he beat Gold Present at Kempton, and that one franked the form with a really good run at the Cheltenham festival.
2m4f on good ground should be perfect for Frodon – and I would expect him to run a big race.
Flying Angel would prefer softer ground than he will get: whilst I have a feeling that Max Ward is better going right handed.
Despite his recent form figures, Cyrius Moriviere is interesting…
He really should have won on his penultimate run at Doncaster, but his saddle slipped when he was clear, jumping the second last.
The drop to 2 miles didn’t suit him last time – and will be more effective back over todays longer trip.
He might lack a bit of the class of the principals – but he will be well suited by the relatively quick ground – and could also get the run of the race, up front.
He’s a good candidate for a pre-race back to lay in running – but it is worth a small bet that he can steal the race, with his bold front running.

2:20 Defi du Seuil is by far the most likely winner of this.
He was really impressive when taking the Triumph hurdle at the Cheltenham festival and if he runs to the same level of form this afternoon, he will be very hard to beat.
However, Aintree is much quicker track than Cheltenham – and Defi du Seuil was thought best on soft ground, prior to his festival win.
I’m not sure he quite deserves to be a 1/3 shot, in what will be much more of a speed test.
The trouble is, what to take him on with…
It’s very hard to make a case for the 4 outsiders, which leaves just Divin Bere, Flying Tiger and Forth Bridge.
The first 2 named fought out the finish to the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham festival, with Flying Tiger coming out best, by a neck.
However, on 5lb better terms, Divin Bere could well reverse the form.
Forth Bridge skipped Cheltenham but was a gutsy winner at Musselburgh, back in February.
He was decent on the flat – and the quick ground and the sharp Aintree track is likely to suit him well.
If Defi du Seuil runs as well as he did at Cheltenham, then they will all be playing for places – but there are still 2 places to be filled (assuming all 8 go to post !).
At around 3/1 to place, then Forth Bridge looks a fair bet, effectively up against 2 rivals, with similar form claims.

2:50 Although officially the best horse in the race, I would struggle to back Cue Card, following his run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
It wasn’t the fact that he fell – it was the fact that he never really travelled and was already beaten when he came down.
He’s been an amazing horse over the years - but he has disappointed twice in his last 3 runs.
He’s now 11 years old and Colin Tizzard will have done well, if he has got him back into top form, since Cheltenham.
Empire of Dirt is the obvious one to take him on with – but he was disappointing at Cheltenham and doesn’t have a lot in hand of a few of his rivals.
In fact, he finished just behind Aso in the Ryanair, and at 25/1 against 3/1, Aso has to be worth a small play, to confirm that wasn’t a fluke…
However, the one that interests me most, is Silviniaco Conti.
He’s already a dual winner of this race – so we know conditions suit him perfectly,
He’s another who bypassed Cheltenham to run here – and I suspect that Paul Nicholls will have him absolutely spot in.
In truth, that might still not be quite good enough for him to win – as he hasn’t looked as good this year as in the past. However, there is a chance that this race won’t take quite as much winning as previous renewals…
Bristol de Mai and Tea for Two would both prefer softer ground: whilst Smad Place is probably declining as quickly as Silviniaco.
Furthermore, all of the runners apart from Silviniaco ran at the Cheltenham festival – and I hope that will give him an edge.
Certainly, if Silviniaco is ever going to win another Grade 1 contest, then I think it will be this one.

3:25 It’s very hard to oppose Buveur D’Air in this.
He was an impressive winner of the Champion hurdle – and whilst todays longer trip is an unknown, there is no reason why he shouldn’t stay it.
Provided Cheltenham didn’t bottom him, he is likely to be too good for his rivals…
The New One has been installed as second favourite - but I can’t see any reason why he should beat Buveur D’Air, particularly if the ground is riding relatively quick.
It would take an act of faith to support Identity Thief, who has lost his way over fences recently: whilst My Tent or Yours has always been a pure 2 miler and is unlikely to stay the additional 4 furlongs.
I could see Rashaan running well.
He has a lot to find with the principals on official ratings - but is still only 5 and therefore has plenty of scope for improvement.
He should also relish todays decent ground – and whilst he is unproven over the trip, if he does stay, then I could see him outrunning dismissive odds.

4:05 Once again, the betting for this race is dominated by horses who ran well in the equivalent Cheltenham contest.
That race was won by Pacha Du Polder, with favourite On the Fringe back in fourth – and Balnaslow just behind in fifth.
I tipped Balnaslow that day at a huge price and he ran a massive race, leading until a sloppy jump at the last, which cost him momentum, and a place…
His jumping would be a concern today, as he got into the bottom of a few of the Cheltenham fences. He won’t get away with doing that at Aintree – but if he jumps a bit more slicky – and provided the Cheltenham run didn’t take too much out of him – then he could take a bit of beating, over todays more suitable trip.
On the Fringe won todays race last season (and the season before !) – and if he’s in the same for today, he will probably complete the hatrick.
However, he is now 12 – and there were no obvious excuses for him at Cheltenham, so it could just be that time is catching up with him.
Pacha du Polder finished well beaten in last years race – but Dineur ran much better in finishing second.
He was no match for On the Fringe, but finished well clear of the remainder.
Following that run, Dineur completed in a few handicap chases last summer – and ran well off marks in the mid 130s.
The fact that he can be competitive off that kind of a mark – coupled with a proven ability to handle the Aintree fences, make Dineur of definite interest.
It also looks like he has been targeted at this race, with a recent run at Chepstow presumably designed to blow away the cobwebs.
He may not be quite up to winning, but I would expect him to run a big race and there is scope in a price of 25/1 for EW involvement.
There are quite a few others of interest in the race, so when you build in the ‘lottery’ element of the fences, big field and amateur jockeys, it’s not a race where you want to be taking a short price on anything.
Rebel Rebellion and Poole Master have both won over todays course and distance; whilst Bears Affair and Black Thunder were both very useful handicappers, in their prime.

4:40 I quite fancied Astre de la Cour in this – but unfortunately he was withdrawn yesterday evening.
In his absence, my first choice would be, Cheltenham eye catcher, Double Ws – but a price of 6/1 in a competitive 15 runner handicap, holds limited appeal.
Next on my list, would be Ravens Tower – and maybe I should have acted early yesterday, when he was a 20/1 shot.
However, he was subsequently tipped up everywhere – and you now can’t beat 10/1…
The problem with him, is that he’s not a horse I’ve ever really taken to – and I always find it hard to tip horses like that !
There are a few in the race that I would be happy to take on, as Alisier Dirlande, Gino Trail, Yorkist and Doitforthevillage, would all prefer softer ground.
I could also see Foxtail Hill and Alisier Dirlande getting into a pace war – which is unlikely to do either of them any favours.
Theinval and Dandridge have both got fair chances - but that is reflected in their prices.
Whilst at bigger odds, I could be half interested in Parsnip Pete and Rock on Rocky – though the former is now 11, so probably past his prime; and whilst the latter has been in very good form recently, this is a much tougher contest.
Although I was really keen to find something in the race to tip, I couldn’t.
I would offer Double Ws as the most likely winner – but I would want a point or two more on the price, before I was prepared to get involved.

5:15 Possibly buoyed by the success of Fayonagh in the Cheltenham bumper, I reckon that Sassy Diva is just about the best bet on todays card…
Obviously there is guesswork involved in a race like this – but she has strong from and I also like the subtle signs…
In terms of the form, then her last time runner up behind Fayonagh, stands out.
True, she was beaten 20 lengths that day – but she effectively gave Fayonagh a 10 length start and pulled 15 lengths clear of the rest of the field.
It was a big performance.
More than that, Fayonagh would probably have won the Cheltenham bumper by 10 lengths herself, granted a clean break, which suggests she is a seriously talented animal.
Sassy Divas third place behind Snow Leopardess, back in September, is also strong form – given that the winner comfortably won the mares novice hurdle final at Newbury last month.
I also like the subtle signs with Sassy Diva.
She’s from a small yard and looks to have been targeted at this race.
Davy Russell is a particularly eye caching booking…
She has already shown sufficient to go very close – and I suspect there is room for further improvement.
In terms of her rivals, then Petticoat Trials and Irish Roe look the 2 most dangerous – but I’m optimistic that Sassy Diva and Davy will prove a bit too good for them…


Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.





Advice Summary

Tips

Aint 1:45 Frodon 1pt win 5/1
Aint 1:45 Cyruis Moriviere 0.5pt win 40/1
Aint 2:20 Forth Bridge 1pt EW 16/1
Aint 2:50 Silviniaco Conti 2pt win 10/1
Aint 2:50 Aso 0.5pt win 25/1
Aint 4:05 Dineur 1pt EW 25/1
Aint 5:15 Sassy Diva 2pt win 12/1

Mentions


Aint 3:25 Rashaan (S )
Aint 4:40 Double Ws (P )

Eye Catchers


Aint 2:50 Aso
Aint 4:40 Double Ws

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