End of season report - 2016-17

Overview

Whilst TVB never has been, and never will be, just a tipping service, the tips do provide a good indicator of how a season has gone – and the suggestion from their results, is that this season was a bit of struggle !

Across the 5 months of the main season (Nov 1^st – Mar 31^st) a total of 161 tips were issued with 44.125pts staked.

If you had managed to secure the best price in the tips email, then you would have achieved a modest profit of 2.6pts (6% ROI).

I only quote prices from the main bookmakers – and I issue at times when they should be prepared to take a bet – but despite that, I doubt everyone will have been able to achieve that figure.

That said, in addition to the tips in the main season, the pre-season was profitable, as has been the post season (Aintree !).

The ante-post selections in the forum also generated a profit – as did (maybe most importantly) the Top Picks.

Only 5 of them were issued during the season – but 4 won, yielding a profit of 5.7pts at SP (8pts at early prices) to a level stake.

Between them, I would hope that the various components ensured that anyone who did follow the tips, made some kind of profit.

Ofcourse, that profit is unlikely to have been anywhere near as big as in the 4 previous seasons – which begs the question, what went wrong…?!

Tipping issues

I’ve spent quite a long time analysing the tips and have come to the conclusion that there are 2 simple reasons, why things didn’t go as well as normal, this season.

Firstly, luck.

I know this could sound like an excuse (!) – but it’s not, it’s just a statement of fact.

161 tips, is not very many – particularly when the average price tends to be double figures.

Simply, you are bound to get variation in luck across such a relatively small sample – and when each winning tip accounts for around 3pts, that can make a big difference.

The method I use to assess how ‘lucky’ the tips have been, is to check how many touched 2.1 in running on Betfair.

When a horse reached 2 on BF, the in running players have decided that it is as likely to win, as it is to lose.

These guys are very good judges - they have to be – so its fair to assume that half of the horses that trade at 2 in running, should go on to win.

In fact, more than half should win, as they need a percentage in order to make a profit from what they do – which is why I choose 2.1 as the true ‘50:50’ point…

Across the season, 37 tips traded at 2.1 or less (34 at 2 or less) – but only 15 of them went on to win…

The suggestion is that the tips were 3 or 4 winners short of what you would expect with average ‘luck’.

That resonates with me.

You will always have some near misses – but Lil Rockerfeller, Flintham and Tea for Two not placing, were 3 in particular, which could/should have gone the other way.

If those 3 had delivered, then there would have been an additional 8pts on the P&L and the season would have felt very different.

The second issue has been the mid week racing…

Looking back through the end of season reports for the past couple of seasons, this is something which has been building.

I was very aware of it – and even took the step of splitting the service into 2 parts this season – via the Big race tips and Daily tips.

With hindsight, what I should have done, is jettison the Daily tips completely.

It’s impossible to define Big race tips precisely – but generally, they are tips in class 1 or class 2 races.

There is the odd class 3 race which could be considered a ‘Big race’ – if it were run at a major meeting on a Saturday, for example: whilst there is the odd class 2 race which wouldn’t be considered a Big race – generally those run mid week, at the smaller tracks.

Looking at the performance of the ‘Big race’ tips against the ‘Daily tips’ reveals a significant difference.

During the season, 113 tips were issued in big races (Class 1 and 2), with 29.88pts staked.

They made a profit, at best advised price, of 6.5pts (ROI of 22%).

They even made a small profit at BSP.

These numbers are far more in line with the numbers for the total service in previous seasons (particularly if you allow for the lack of ‘luck’).

By contrast, there were 48 Daily tips issued during the season, with 14.25pts staked.

But they made a 3.9pt loss, at best prices

Across the entire season, there were only 3 winning Daily tips: Court Frontier; Casse Tete and Westerner Point.

Furthermore, Casse Tete was a border line ‘Big race’ tip (he ran in a class 3 handicap at the main meeting on a Saturday); whilst I had to guess that Westerner Point was running in the equivalent of a class 3 race, in Ireland.

In short, the only definite winning Daily tip of the season, was Court Frontier – and if I’d not got in before the price crash, I wouldn’t have tipped him !

And therein lies the problem with the Daily tips.

The prices of the vast majority of the potential Daily tips go, before they can actually be tipped…

The bookmakers have been very clever by issuing prices early the evening before.

That tempts in people who can see ricks in the early prices – but anyone who bets with them at that point, risks losing their account.

It’s an impossible situation: the over-priced horses will be backed – and their prices will shorten. Therefore, by the morning, when the bookmakers are prepared to take some bets, their prices will be much more accurate – and then they will put a 20% margin on top !

Simply, the chances on finding a ‘value’ selection in a mid week race, based on information available in the public domain – and being able to back it in the morning, are very small indeed…

The other issue with the mid week races, is that often, conventional form study won’t reveal the most likely winner.

In such races, connections will frequently decide whether today is the day that they will look to exploit a favourable handicap mark – but unless you are privy to that intent, then you can only guess (or look for signs in the late betting market).

In summary, the odds are just too heavily stacked against your average bettor, for them to be able to operate profitably in small races, betting early in the morning.

If you are able to bet on first shows – or close to the off – then it is possible, but neither of those are realistic options, when you are tipping…

Tips Analysis

With such a big difference between the performance of the 2 groups (Big race tips and Daily tips), it’s difficult to draw many general conclusions.

However, I’m also disinclined to analyse the results of the groups separately, as that doesn’t seem appropriate (as they were all TVB tips).

The one thing it is worth high lighting however, is the performance of well backed tips (as this is something which I’ve pointed out in the past).

This season, 6 horses halved in price, from the advised price to BSP – and whilst only one of them won, that doesn’t tell the full story.

The winner was Court Frontier – who was also the biggest steamer of the entire season !

However, of the other 5: Morello Royal fell: Audacious Plan ran well to finish third: Flintham was nailed in the shadow of the post: and Ganbei won on his next outing.

McKenzies Friend was the final one of the half dozen  – and he’s not yet run again, so is probably worth looking out for !

Neither As de Mee nor Fayonagh quite managed to half in price, prior to winning – but they weren’t far off, suggesting once again, that well backed tips, are worth following, even at the BSP.

Conversely, of the 62 tips that had a bigger BSP than advised price – only 3 won.

I’ve no idea why Baie des Iles drifted: whilst Casse Tete and Rock the World were the other 2.

In fairness, Lil Rockerfeller also drifted and if he had won, the numbers would have looked very different.

That said, to an extent, the Cheltenham festival has its own betting rules, so he and Rock the World, should possibly be excluded from analysis.

TVB Forum

The TVB forum was introduced last season – and its usage has evolved significantly this season.

That has been mainly due to the system generated ‘tips’, which a handful of the guys have posted on there.

Neil and Matt were involved initially – but latterly it has been Chris and Francis who have driven things forward…

In addition to the system bets, the forum also continued to be used for the occasional betting related matter. Also, Steve very kindly took to posting the Pricewise selections and grids, most Friday evenings (which helps when the prices on those race revert in the morning). Donnie periodically posted his stable views – and ofcourse, Dave ran another successful Naps competition.

I used to it store ante-post selections and thoughts – and also for the weekly eye catchers…

In truth, I’m not sure how useful the eye catchers have been (I’ve not received any feedback on them).

However, over the course of the season, there were 27 individual horses, who were identified as eye catchers and who recorded a win in their next 3 races.

Backing all of the eye catchers blindly, would have resulted in a significant loss – but that is to be expected, as many subsequently ran in unsuitable races.

Just focusing on those running in appropriate races, would have seen much better results.
That would be particularly true, if you were able to back them early – as invariably the eye catchers were well backed in the early markets (linking back to horses being backed early in mid week markets).

Conclusions and next season

In a lot of respects, I think the 2016-17 season can be viewed positively.

The processes and procedures that I use, worked well: with the write-up driving things on a daily basis – ably backed up by the forum.

There were non of the prices crashes, experienced in previous seasons – and generally, I would hope that people were able to get on the tips (assuming they had appropriate accounts).

However, the Daily tips were a big cloud.

Issuing them was difficult – and the ones I did issue, simply didn’t perform well enough.

I suspect that was often caused by me not being able to tips the horses I actually wanted to tip – but that’s not really an acceptable excuse.

I tried for a month, at the end of the season, to see if I might be able to tip late in the day, via the ‘Fair bets’.

However, I don’t really feel that was sufficiently successful to warrant continuing with, next season.

To operate successfully in the mid week races, I suspect you need to either bet very early – or very late – and neither of those lend themselves to tipping… 

So where does that leave things for next season…?

I see no need to change anything, with regard to the Big race tips.

Not only were they profitable over the course of the season – but the other profitable aspects of the service (pre-season, post season, ante-post and Top Picks), all focused on Big races.

The issue is therefore what to do on a Daily basis…

I have a number of options in this area – and I intend to create a post on the forum, to canvass opinions…

The Daily tips will stop – but what about the write-up on mid week days ? Does this have sufficient value to warrant producing, if there won’t be any tips..?

Another option would be for me to offer brief early opinions, in the forum – and maybe revisit at lunchtime, on race days.

Or alternatively, I could just skip the mid week completely, and focus solely on the weekends/festivals…

I have a relatively open mind on the best path forward, so really need a few of you guys to let me know your preference.

Anyway, I think that just about covers all of the main points.

It’s been a season which I have mixed views on – as I suspect do many of you.

That said, the main issue seems pretty clear, and that will be addressed.

One thing I really must thank you all for, is your support – either explicitly, or implicitly - throughout the season.

There is no denying that there were some tough days – particularly during December – but it says much for the quality of my subscriber base, that there was barely a dissenting voice (and plenty of supporting ones !).

I consider myself lucky to have built up such a group of loyal and knowledgeable subscribers. I suspect there are few – if any – services with a stronger following (and I’m honestly not just saying that !).

As I’ve mentioned previously, I will continue to post thoughts on the forum, on an ad-hoc basis (when suitable races appear – and as time permits).

Likewise, I know that Chris and Francis are committed to running a few systems through the summer – and also recording the results of their experiment with Nina/Alice !

In short, if you are bored, then tune in to the forum !

Otherwise, I’ll be back in touch in the autumn, with details of my plans for the 2017-18 season (hopefully inspired by some of your input !).

Best wishes for an enjoyable summer – and thanks again for the ongoing support.

TVB.