Day
3 of the Aintree Grand National meeting.
Grand National day !
…and
also the final, final day of the 2016-17 TVB season !!
It’s
been a long old season – Troika Steppes winning at Cheltenham in the pre-season,
feels like a life-time ago !
I’ll
cover the season in detail in the end of year report which I’ll aim to issue
some time next week.
For
now, there’s an excellent days racing to deal with – one which has yielded more
tips than any other day this season.
Always best to go out with a bang, I reckon
Always best to go out with a bang, I reckon
For
the last time for a good few months: here are my thoughts on the days
races…
Aintree
1:45 A nice 22 runner handicap to start the day
!
That
said, I don’t think it is quite as competitive as the field size
suggests.
There are a few that can be eliminated on account of the
ground: a long season – or because they are poorly handicapped.
My
short list consists of Briary Queen, The Tourad Man, No Comment, Fountains
Windfall, Joe Farrell, Forthefunofit and No Hassle Hoff.
The
Tourad Man and Forthefunofit are far more exposed than the other 5 – so they are
the first to go.
It’s
difficult to know how well handicapped Briary Queen is, as she has been running
in mares races. She may also have a preference for softer ground than she will
get today.
As a
consequence, she is next to depart…
It’s
very hard to choose between the remaining 4, but I feel that there is little
margin in a best price of 10/1 about No Comment – so he goes next.
That
leaves Fountains Windfall, Joe Farrell and No Hassle Hoff.
Fountains Windfall is a progressive novice who has been
getting his act together over the past couple of months.
A
creditable third in a very tough handicap at Sandown has been followed by 2
bloodless wins in novice events.
He’s
not easy to get handle on – but he seems to be improving and todays trip and
ground should suit him well.
He
looks a fair price at 12/1.
Joe
Farrell is another who looks to be improving.
I
tipped him last time at Ascot, when he just lost out to
Forthefunofit.
He
is 6lb better off with that rival today – and has the greater scope for
improvement, particularly on decent ground.
Again, 16/1 looks a very fair price.
I
can’t see much margin in a price of 5/1 about No Hassle Hoff – but I do think he
is the most likely winner.
His
form with The Worlds End and Constantine Boy was franked in no uncertain manner
yesterday – and simply, he looks handicapped to win off a mark of
134.
What
I decided to do, was stake Fountains Windfall and Joe Farrell, so that there
will be a decent win, if either comes home first – and just cover the stakes on
them with a win bet on No Hassle Hoff.
I feel happier doing that, than tipping the bigger priced ones each way.
I feel happier doing that, than tipping the bigger priced ones each way.
Hopefully the strategy will pay off !
2:25 This looks a stronger novice event than those
run on the first 2 days of the meeting – but I still want to take a chance on
Benatar…
My
original plan was to side with Le Breuil, as he comfortably beat Benatar last
time at Newbury – and there is no obvious reason why the form should be
reversed.
However, he is a 7/1 shot – whilst Benatar is
50/1.
Also, I can’t figure out why Gary Moore would be taking on the winner again, unless he felt that Benatar had a chance of reversing the form…
Also, I can’t figure out why Gary Moore would be taking on the winner again, unless he felt that Benatar had a chance of reversing the form…
The
final thing that put me off Le Breuil is that he likes to front run – and I
suspect he won’t be in for an easy time, if he tries to do that
today.
In
contrast, a strong pace will probably suit Benatar…
In
fairness, it’s not just Le Breuil that Benatar has to beat today – he has 11
other rivals, who have all got some kind of a chance.
Finians Oscar sets the standard – though his form doesn’t
now look quite as strong as it did a couple of months ago.
Brio
Conti was massively impressive last time – but that was in a handicap off a mark
of 134 – and he will find todays contest much tougher.
Messire des Obeaux arguably sets the form standard – but
he looks vulnerable from a win perspective…
Captain Forex is of definite interest – and if Benatar
weren’t in the race, I would probably have gravitated to him.
That
said, his form is of a very similar level to Benatars - and he is a quarter of
the price…
This
is definitely a speculative, value based play – but I think you all know how
impressed I was with Benatar on his debut and at a huge price, it is worth a
small risk, that he is as good as I originally thought…
3:00 I feel that Charbel should be taken on, in
this…
He
ran a massive race last time in the Arkle at Cheltenham – putting it up to
Altior and still in with every chance when falling at the second
last.
However, that is part of the issue. I can’t believe that race didn’t take a lot out of him – and on the back of a fall as well, I couldn’t consider him at 4/5.
However, that is part of the issue. I can’t believe that race didn’t take a lot out of him – and on the back of a fall as well, I couldn’t consider him at 4/5.
Colla Pier looks outclassed and I’m not a big fan of San
Benedeto: though in fairness, he does have every chance on the book – and the
small field may well suit him.
However, if Charbel is to get beaten, I suspect it will
be by either Politologue or Forest Bihan.
They
are 2 very different horses, so choosing between them isn’t easy.
Politologue is an excellent jumper – and I wasn’t at all
surprised that he didn’t stay the 2m4f trip in the JLT.
2 miles is more his trip – though whether he will be ideally suited by a quick 2 miles on relatively fast ground, is a different matter…
2 miles is more his trip – though whether he will be ideally suited by a quick 2 miles on relatively fast ground, is a different matter…
Forest Bihan isn’t as good a jumper as Politologue – but
he’s very much a 2 miler.
His
defeat of Cloudy Dream at Doncaster reads very well – and on that form, he must
have every chance of beating, even a peak form Charbel.
He
had a chance to prove that last time in the Arkle – but a bad mistake at the
third last, effectively ended his race.
I
expect Brian Hughes to settle him in behind Charbel/Politlogue and challenge
late.
Provided his jumping holds up, I’m optimistic that he will be able to outspeed that pair over the final couple of furlongs.
Provided his jumping holds up, I’m optimistic that he will be able to outspeed that pair over the final couple of furlongs.
3:40 I’m pretty keen on Knock House in this – and
I’m a bit surprised that others aren’t as well !
He
was acquired by Tim Leslie at the start of this season and sent to Donald
McCain, presumably with the intention of running in the Grand
National.
However things haven’t quite gone to plan, with him
running just twice since – and only once over fences.
As a
result, his handicap mark has dropped by a pound - and he has just missed out on
a place in the field for the big race (he is second reserve).
That
must be gutting for them – but this race will offer some consolation – and you
can be pretty sure that the horse will be primed to run for its life.
If
that’s the case, then I think it has a very good chance, as todays ground and
track, will suit him perfectly (he is very much a good ground horse).
More
than that, he is a well handicapped horse.
His last win came off a mark of 140 – the same mark that he runs from today.
His last win came off a mark of 140 – the same mark that he runs from today.
He
also finished fourth at last seasons Cheltenham festival from a 4lb higher mark
- and was sent off at just 8/1 for this race 12 months ago, off a 3lb higher
mark and when the ground had turned against him…
As
an 8 year old, having just his third run for a new trainer, he even has scope
for improvement.
In
short, there’s not a lot to dislike about him !
As
you would expect in a race like this, there are plenty of potential dangers,
with Emerging Markets the one I would probably fear most.
However, for me, this race is about one horse: Knock
House.
Provided he gets a bit of luck in running, I’m very
hopeful that he will run a massive race.
4:20 I just can’t resist a play on Different
Gravey in this, at a spectacularly big price.
The
horse has too much latent ability to be sent off at 25/1 for any race – so this
is really a bet on whether Nicky Henderson can get the best out of him
today…
He
actually ran in this race 12 months ago – and was just a 5/1 shot. More than
that, he was up against Thistelcrack – who was himself coming here on the back
of a demolition job in the stayers hurdle at Cheltenham.
As
it turned out, it was a non event, with Different Gravey not performing –and
Thistlecrack strolling home for an impressive win.
Different Gravey was well supported to beat Thistlecrack,
because on his previous outing he had put up one of the most impressive
performances of the season.
That was when taking apart a decent handicap at Ascot, under top weight.
That was when taking apart a decent handicap at Ascot, under top weight.
It
was also his seasonal debut – but he came home unchallenged by 16
lengths.
Only
very good horses can produce that kind of performance.
Unfortunately he has not repeated it since – with only a
win on his chasing debut at Ascot in November, reminding us of what he is
capable…
Nicky Henderson reaches for the cheek pieces today –
which can be read in a couple of ways.
However, if they have the desired effect of waking him
up, then we know that he has the ability to go close.
On
official ratings, he is still only 5lb shy of top rated Yanworth – and that is
despite a couple of disappointing runs…
My
suspicion is that he will either go very close today – or blow out
completely.
Let’s hope it is the former…
Of
the others, then I would expect Cole Harden to run well – and he is probably the
one to beat.
He
ran really well last time in the stayers hurdle at Cheltenham – and slightly
faster ground and an easy track, should suit him better today.
He also has a visor applied for the first time – so there will definitely be no hanging about !
He also has a visor applied for the first time – so there will definitely be no hanging about !
I
don’t think that will work in the favour of Yanworth.
He
has been trained to show speed – but is likely to need stamina today.
I won’t be surprised if he comes up short, over the final couple of hurdles.
I won’t be surprised if he comes up short, over the final couple of hurdles.
Snow
Falcon should run well – provided his jumping doesn’t let him down: as should
Supasundea, with the ground likely to suit him.
5:15 Solving the Grand National, gets harder every
year.
Without exaggeration, there are only 10 horses in the
race that I would feel confident of dismissing – and for most of those, it would
be because they don’t have sufficient stamina to last the 4m2f trip.
30
years ago, there would only be 10 in the race, with any chance.
Half
the field would have been carrying too much weight: whilst another half wouldn’t
be able to jump the fences ! – and that’s before you got onto the suitability of
ground/distance…
How
times change !
One
thing I do feel, is that you shouldn’t generally back anything at less than
20/1.
As
Gold Present showed yesterday, the element of lottery hasn’t changed – and with
so many horses having a chance, the winner is likely to be the one for whom
everything drops right.
Obviously, that could be a horse priced at less than 20/1
– but betting is about odds and percentages, and if you back 30 X 20/1 shots,
you’re going to lose, even though you’ll probably get the winner !
Anyway, enough of the pre-amble !!
I
started with a ‘short list’ of 12 – and I’ve ended up tipping 6 of those. 5 win
only – and one each way.
This
is likely to be a race which I either get spectacularly right – or wrong
!
The
6 chosen ones are:
Bishops Road: my long term fancy for the race. There is a
doubt about the ground – but that is more than factored into the
price.
He
stays; he jumps (despite falling at the first in last years Topham !) – and he
is well handicapped (most notably, with favourite Defintly Red).
If
he does handle the ground - and the fences - then he is likely to run a massive
race and 66/1 is an insulting price.
Vicente: I put him up in the forum a couple of months
back – and whilst he has disappointed on his only run since then, conditions
have come right for him this afternoon.
He
has also been bought by Trevor Hemmings – and has Brian Hughes in the
saddle.
He
showed what he is capable of, when winning last seasons Scottish National – and
off a pound higher mark today, must have every chance.
The
Young Master: Has been trained for this race all season - and showed that he was
ready to peak, with his run last time, at Cheltenham.
He won the B365 chase at Sandown last spring off a mark just 2lb lower – under near identical conditions to those he will face today.
He won the B365 chase at Sandown last spring off a mark just 2lb lower – under near identical conditions to those he will face today.
Again, granted luck in running, I expect him to go very
close.
Thunder and Roses: Beat Rule the World in the Irish
National 2 years ago – and has repeatedly shown decent form since then. He
doesn’t look badly handicapped (particularly in relation to Pleasant Company)
and should have no issue with the conditions.
Wounded Warrior: Is another Gigginstown horse. I toyed
with tipping Measureofmydreams, but I suspect that Wounded Warrior is Noel
Meades number 1 hope. He’s a class horse – but he’s had problems. He
disappointed last time in blinkers – but they have been left off today. On his
previous outing, he ran really well in the Thystes, staying on late like a horse
who would appreciate todays marathon test. If everything falls right for him
today, he has the ability to win.
Drop
out Joe: The most speculative of the lot ! But, he has very good form when fresh
– and will be very fresh for this. He jumps and travels: has an excellent win
record – and will really appreciate the decent ground. He’s been injured, so
that is a concern – but if the old ability remains, he should go very
well.
The
others on my short list – and so just missing out on being tipped, were:
Perfect Candidate (possibly too high in the handicap –
but could easily be placed): Measureofmydreams (suspect jumping might catch him
out); Ucello Conti (may lack a bit of stamina); Rogue Angel (not a lot of margin
in his price); Shantou Flyer (could be a bit high in the handicap).
Whilst if I was going to side with one of the favourites,
it would be Blaklion.
For
those who like to play in running: Gas Line Boy, Tenor Nivernais and Stella
Notion are all good jumpers, who like to race prominently – but who will
struggle to get home.
Of
the 3 Stella Notion is probably the most interesting.
Let’s hope it’s a memorable race !!
6:15 I was hoping that I might be able to tip
Wakea at a price in this…
That’s what I did last time, when he ran a stormer at
Cheltenham – blasting 20 lengths clear and briefly looking like he might hold
on.
That was his first run for 4 months, so he could easily improve for it: he should also be better suited by today’s quicker ground and sharper track.
That was his first run for 4 months, so he could easily improve for it: he should also be better suited by today’s quicker ground and sharper track.
However, I don’t see a great deal of margin in a price of
8/1 in a competitive 19 runner handicap.
In
truth, I don’t think the race is quite as competitive as the numbers imply – but
there are definitely 4 or 5 real dangers.
Unfortunately, they are all at the head of the betting,
in the shape of So Celebre, John Constable, Chesterfield and Born
Survivor.
Donagh Myler will need to get his fractions spot on with
Wakea, if he is going to hold off those 4…
Darebin is one worth considering, at a price…
He
ran a nice race last time in the Imperial Cup – and I could see him doing the
same again this afternoon.
Jason Nuttal takes off 10lb – and that could be
significant.
He’s
certainly worth considering EW at a general 22/1.
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead
!
TVB.
TVB.
Advice Summary
Tips
Aint
1:45 Joe Farrell 1pt win 16/1
Aint
1:45 Fountains Windfall 1pt win 12/1
Aint
1:45 No Hassle Hoff 0.5pt win 5/1
Aint
2:25 Benatar 0.5pt EW 50/1
Aint
3:00 Forest Bihan 2pt win 6/1
Aint
3:40 Knock House 2pt win, 1pt place 18/1
Aint
4:20 Different Gravey 2pt win 25/1
Aint
5:15 Bishops Road 0.5pt EW 66/1
Aint
5:15 Drop out Joe 0.5pt win 66/1
Aint
5:15 The Young Master 1pt win 22/1
Aint
5:15 Vicente 1pt win 25/1
Aint
5:15 Thunder and Roses 0.5pt win 33/1
Aint
5:15 Wounded Warrior 0.5pt win 66/1
Mentions
Aint
6:15 Darebin (O )
Eye Catchers
Aint
1:45 Barney Dwan
Aint
2:25 Benatar
Aint
6:15 Wakea
