There are no less than 10 NH meetings today, taking place
across the length and breadth or England and Ireland – and I thought Saturdays
were busy !
Even
with a couple of days to look through the form, that’s too much – so other than
a quick scan, I’ve disregarded the meetings at Sedgefield, Fontwell and
Limerick.
I’ve
also not bothered with either Huntingdon or Down Royal – apart from one race at
each meeting, in which an eye catcher is running.
That
left with me a far more manageable 5 meetings to trawl through !
My
main focus has been on Kempton – as that is where the days biggest races are
taking place – and where the bookmakers will be happiest to take a
bet.
That
said, I’ve spent a bit of time on two or three races at each of the other
meetings – either driven by the shape of the race, or because an eye catcher is
running in it.
There are actually a total of 6 eye catchers running this
afternoon.
I’ve
also issued 4 tips (in addition to our ante-post tip) – and there are the first
few official mentions !
So
all in all, a busy day…
Kempton
1:30 Nicky Henderson has trained 5 of the last 9
winners of this race - so it’s not too surprising that Gold Present has been
installed favourite.
In
fairness, the horse was a good winner on his chasing debut at Doncaster, last
time – and if he can build on that, then he will take a bit of
beating.
However, he’s not particularly well handicapped based on
his hurdles form from last season and this looks a stronger race than the
Doncaster one…
Poker School is disputing favouritism with Gold Present
and he was a good winner of a decent race at Ascot, just 9 days ago.
The
question with him, is his jumping – particularly round Kempton (which takes a
bit of jumping) – but if it stands the test, he should also go close.
However, I’m going to take them both on with Max
Ward.
He
was a very useful novice hurdler with Charlie Brooks, a couple of seasons back –
and it looked as if he had retained all of that ability, when he made a winning
chasing debut for Tom George at Huntingdon in November.
He
only beat 2 rivals that day – but did so in emphatic fashion.
The
fact that his next race was the Grade 1 Henry VIII novice chase at Sandown,
suggests that connections rate him highly.
Maybe not too surprisingly, he proved no match for Altior
there – but that one is an outstanding novice, so a 20 length defeat, needs to
be put in perspective.
Interestingly Max Ward was ridden with considerable
restraint in that race, and I’m not at all surprised to see him stepped up by
half a mile today.
My
feeling is that he is a well handicapped horse –who is still improving.
In
fairness, that might also be true for some of his rivals, as it is a race where
a case of sorts could be made for most of the runners. However, Max Ward is the
one that appeals most and I think there is sufficient in his price to warrant a
small risk.
2:05 We’ve been with Minella Daddy on his 2 most
recent runs: when he was a successful Top Pick at Ascot in the middle of
November – and just 9 days ago, again at Ascot, when he was collared close
home…
I
fully expect him to run another big race this afternoon – and I did strongly
consider tipping him.
Certainly, he has less question marks against him than
most of his rivals – but I also think that he has less scope for improvement
than a few of them.
I
wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him place – but I would be a little
surprised to see him win…
In
terms of what might beat him: then Anibale Fly and Frodon are the 2 most obvious
ones.
Both
are rated higher than Minella Daddy – and have more scope for improvement.
However, nether is proven over todays 3 mile trip (whereas Minella Daddy
is).
The
trouble is, it is possible that both could improve for the step up in distance –
and I suspect at last one of them will.
It’s
certainly interesting that Tony Martin sends Anibale Fly over to contest the
race – and he is probably the one to beat.
Of
the others, then Present Man and Amore Alato are both possible dangers: whilst I
wouldn’t be surprised to see Virgilio run better than his dismissive odds
suggest.
2:40 Whilst it’s relatively easy to anticipate how
this race will be run – it’s not quite so easy to work out which horse will come
home in front.
Following his last time out win in the International hurdle at
Cheltenham, where The New One successfully employed front running tactics for
the first time in his career, the expectation has to be that he will try to
repeat the feat in this.
He
is unlikely to face any competition for the lead – so there must be a fair
chance he will be able to do just that.
The only issue is, where the stiff
Cheltenham course and soft ground, suited him perfectly, last time: the sharper
Kempton track and quicker ground will provide much more of a speed test, tdoay –
and that won’t play to his strengths.
In
fairness, he does have a decent record at Kempton – and if Sam Twiston Davies
can get his fractions right, he is likely to be very tough to pass.
If
he is outspeeded up the home straight, then it is likely to be by either
Yanworth or My Tent or Yours.
Both
horses are owned by J P McManus, is it is probably significant that Barry
Geraghty has chosen to ride Yanworth.
That said, it could simply be a case of
him riding the one with the greater potential, with an eye to the
future.
My
Tent or Yours is unlikely to be winning a champion hurdle - whereas there is a
chance that Yanworth might be capable of doing just that.
Personally, I don’t
think he will be – and I would see My Tent or Yours as the main danger to The
New One.
Whether he will be able to get past him, could well
depend on the quality of the ride given to The New One…
3:15 Whilst it might be a fascinating race, a
field of just 5, for arguably the second most important Chase of the season, has
to be considered something of a disappointment.
Hopefully we will get to find out just how good
Thistlecrack is – assuming his jumping stands up to the early test…
And
that’s not a formality – though with just 5 runners, he should have the space to
organise himself at his fences, and his inexperience may not cost
him.
In
truth, we won’t really know until the race gets underway and we are clearer on
tactics.
If
Thistlecrack is allowed an uncontested lead – then he is likely to prove
difficult to pass.
I
don’t expect that to happen – because Josses Hill has shown all his best form
when front running – though that form has been shown over trips half a mile
shorter than todays, so connections may choose to try and conserve his stamina,
by settling him in.
In
theory Silviniaco Conti is also a potential front runner – and it is possible
that Noel Fehily will look to ride him aggressively. However, the horse really
needs to bounce back to form if he is going to have any chance of getting
involved.
So
what of the chances of Tea for Two..?
I
put him up ante-post last month, when I felt there was a possibility that the
race might cut up.
That has happened – and the 33/1 then is now 20/1, at
best.
However, far more attractive, the 8/1 to finish in the
first 3 – is now a 7/4 shot on Betfair (which is the only place you can bet on
him to finish in the first 3).
We
therefore have a good bet – and I think there is a fair chance it will collect –
though it is likely to depend to a large extent on how the race is
run.
On
official ratings, Tea for Two is the worst horse in the race – so all things
being equal, he should finish last !
However, he is likely to run his race, whatever – and
that isn’t the case for any of his rivals, bar Cue Card.
If
Josses Hill leads – that will likely upset Thistlecrack.
If
Thistlecrack leads – that could well upset Josses Hill.
Silviniaco Conti could is probably in decline and may not
run anywhere near his current rating.
Whilst it is true that Tea for Two would prefer softer
ground – there are still a few scenarios that would see him making it into the
frame.
Getting him home in front requires a little more
imagination – and 20/1 is probably a fair reflection of his win
chances.
With
tactics so key, it’s not a race I would really want to call now – but we are
sitting on a bet which we has a fair chance of collecting.
Fingers crossed
!
3:45 A competitive handicap hurdle completes the
card at Kempton and the most interesting horses are at the top of the
market…
Cases can be made for Lisheen Prince, Spiritofthegames,
Instant Karma, Doesyourdogbite and Big Chief Benny – but I’m taking them all on
with Moscato…
He’s
only run 3 times over hurdles – all in relatively minor novice
events.
He’s
been placed on each occasion – but not managed to get his head in
front.
Based purely on those 3 runs, he looks to have been quite
harshly treated, with an opening mark of 125 – but we know more about Moscato,
than his runs over hurdles reveal…
He
is well established on the flat, where he has a rating of 95. That rating has
been hard earnt - and he was running to that level in the summer.
Generally speaking, a NH horse will have a mark 45lb
higher than a flat horse of similar ability.
Therefore if Moscato is as good over hurdles as he is on
the flat, he should be capable of achieving a mark of 140.
Based on that logic, he is potentially 15lb well-in
today…
Ofcourse it is never quite that simple. For a start the
horse needs to be able to jump – and cope with the greater demands of NH
racing.
However, watching Moscato, he looks pretty robust - and
his jumping appears reasonably proficient.
The
question then becomes, why hasn’t he already run to a level higher than 125,
over hurdles ?
I
think that is down to careful placing.
His
3 runs so far haven’t really provided him with the stamina test which I suspect
he needs. 2 of the runs were over 2 miles – whilst the third was in a small
field, around the sharp Ludlow track.
He
gets more of a test today: 2m5f on softer ground – and with a bigger, stronger
field.
It
is also interesting that connections reapply blinkers. The horse has worn them
before on the flat – and run well in them. He is also Leighton Aspells only
mount on the card…
In
short, the subtle signs are positive.
Against some potentially tough opposition, and with
limited hurdling experience himself, he could never be a confident selection.
However, I do think he has a fair chance – and 10/1 underestimates that
chance…
A
quick mention for eye catcher Rothman.
He
caught the eye on his penultimate run over fences at Fontwell.
I
don’t know why he is running over hurdles today – but the race looks too strong
for him to feature.
Wetherby
1:50 This is a really interesting race – and I
could give any one of half a dozen, a chance of winning.
Included in that half dozen, would be 2 eye catchers:
Henri Parry Morgan and Our Kaempfer.
The
former caught the eye last time out in the Hennessy – and must have a good
chance today in a weaker race off a mark 3lb lower.
Trip
and ground will be fine for him – and he holds Blaklion on form from Aintree,
last season.
In
truth, there isn’t a lot to dislike about him – apart from his
jockey.
Now
I’ve got nothing against David Noonan – but he doesn’t strike me as a ‘go to’
jockey – more one who was available at the meeting.
That’s always a danger on
a day like today – but I think that if Peter Bowen were really keen on the
chances of Henri Parry Morgan, he would have secured a different
jockey.
I
have the same issue with Our Kaempfer…
Again, I have nothing against Richie
McClernan – but it seems to me that Charlie Longsdon has secured the best jockey
available at the meeting, rather than making a real effort.
In
truth, Our Kaempfer has a little more to prove as well. His form isn’t as strong
as that of Henri Parry Morgan – and Longsdon is still struggling for
form.
That
said, Our Kaempfer does still have potential over fences – particularly over
todays 3 mile trip…
I
might have been prepared to take a chance on either one in a weaker race - but this is not a weak race !
In
addition to Blaklion (who has a definite chance – despite the form line with
Henri Parry Morgan), there is also Yala Enki and Defintly Red – both of whom
have very good chances.
I
also wouldn’t be keen to dismiss Wakanda, who won a strong race at Ascot just 12
months ago – and runs off a mark 2lb lower today.
He’s
still only 7 – and whilst he has been out of form recently, if Sue Smith has got
him back today, he is arguably the one to beat.
Certainly, if he is backed, I
would be inclined to take notice…
2:25 It’s not too surprising to see Solomn Grundy
installed as favourite for this.
He
finished runner up on his seasonal debut in a very hot novice event at
Cheltenham – and followed that up, by winning at Newbury (and in the process,
reversing form with the Cheltenham race winner).
He must have every chance
again today – but he has to run off a 7lb higher mark and the Newbury contest
didn’t appear to have a great deal of depth.
That
certainly can’t be said for the race that Bon Enfant ran in last
time…
That
was at Wincanton and he was sent off favourite in the 12 runner
event.
He
was just starting to struggle hen he made a real mess of the third last hurdle
and that was effectively his race over.
He
was allowed to come home in his own time – but I would expect him to be better
for that race, today.
Looking back at the race, it now appears particularly
strong…
The
impressive winner, Brelan D’As hasn’t run since: but both second and third,
Winning Spark and Hint of Mint, have run and won.
Fourth placed On Demand hasn’t won – but she didn’t run a
huge race in a strong contest at Cheltenham.
In short, it looks as if Bon
Enfant was running in a very hot race.
Todays race doesn’t look as strong.
Aside from Solomn Grundy, Red Infantry and Cracking Find
look the biggest dangers – but they both have question marks over
them.
As I
mentioned for the previous race, I think jockey bookings on a day like today are
important - and I like the fact that Gavin Sheehan is on board Bon
Enfant.
Again, he is no certainty – but he does have a chance and also
represents a bit of value at 7/1+
Wincanton
2:15 This Pertemps qualifier looks like it might
be a 2 horse race…
Mr
Mix and Onefitzall are the 2, young progressive horses in the field – and they
are being backed, pretty much, to the exception of everything else.
In
truth, it is difficult to argue with the market – and whilst the prices of both
look ridiculously short, they are by far the most likely race
winners…
That
said, there are two other runners in the field, who may be worthy of each way
consideration…
Hit
the Highway and Western Cape, both have some potential (though not as much as
the market leaders) – and are at prices where they could be backed to
place.
Certainly, Hit the Highway at 25/1 is the nearest I could
find to a bit of ‘value’ in the race.
Outside of those mentioned, the only other angle I could
see, is if a horse better know as a chaser, manages to exploit a more lenient
mark over hurdles.
Buywise, Masters Hill and Theatrical Star, all fit that
category – though in truth, I’m struggling to summon up a lot of enthusiasm for
their chances…
3:25 This race has quite an open look to it – but
I’m quite keen on the chances of Bears Rails…
He
caught my eye (unofficially) last time out, when staying on well at Warwick, in
the race won by Brandon Hill.
Despite it being his second run of the season, he looked
as if he could still progress from it (he’s a very big horse).
I
would expect him to be at his peak today – and the application of first time
blinkers, is an interesting move.
Certainly he is potentially well handicapped –
particularly considering he is still only 6 and has scope for a fair bit of
improvement.
I
think he sets quite a high standard for a race such as this…
In
terms of his rivals, then I could give half chances to a number of them – but am
fearful of non in particular.
Ardkilly Witness ran quite well last time – and has the
back class to win this: whilst Expedite and Bear Goggles both have scope for
improvement.
I
could also see Dawson City running a big race under top weight.
That
said, I would struggle to pick between them if Bears Rails wasn’t in the race.
It’s a good job he is then !
Market Rasen
1:10 I could be quite keen on Moscow Me in this –
if Henry Oliver was in better form.
The
horse was a good winner at Leicester, almost exactly 12 months ago – and on that
form would have every chance today, off a mark just 2lb higher.
It’s
not even as if he’s run too badly in the interim – all of his subsequent defeats
can be explained relatively easily.
However, I am not overly happy with the form of the Henry
Oliver stable – and it is that which stops me form getting involved with Moscow
Me today.
I do
followed Oliver quite closely – and whilst his horses haven’t been running
really badly, they haven’t been quite firing either…
The
other one of real interest in the race, is Unzing.
I
tipped him last season when he was trained in Ireland – and I have kept a close
eye on him in his two runs since he relocated to the UK.
He’s
run really well on both occasions – and I could be interested in him today – if
he was running over a little further.
He’s
down to the minimum trip this afternoon – and I just don’t see him as a 2
miler.
I
may be wrong – and he has been subject to early market support – but I just
think he might struggle for pace over today’s distance.
1:45 There is little doubt in my mind that
Masterplan could easily win a race such as this – if he was in peak
form.
I
tipped him in a tougher race last time at Sandown – but he just didn’t run his
race.
That
has to be a concern – as everything looked perfect for him that day - as it does
again today.
Certainly, if connections have got him back, then I think
he can win – but I’ve no idea whether that will have happened.
This is
definitely a situation where monitoring the market close to the off, could
provide some real guidance.
If
the horse is well backed, then my guess would be that someone thinks that
whatever has been preventing him from running his races, has been
cured.
If
that’s the case, then he is definitely one to be interested in…
2:20 This looks a very open race – and it’s
difficult to dismiss many of the runners…
Fill
the Power looked a ridiculously difficult ride last time – and on that run, is
no ride for a conditional jockey !
That
said, if first time cheek pieces liven him up, he is handicapped to hack up
!!
Gonalston Cloud also sports first time cheekpieces – and
he too isn’t badly handicapped.
He’s more straightforward - and could be at
his peak, following 2 runs this season.
Amiral Collognes is the other one worthy of a mention –
as he also is handicapped to win.
In truth, I just can’t figure him
out…
I
could probably work through the race, constructing a case for all of the runners
– but I won’t bother.
Suffice to say, no result would particularly surprise me
!
Leopardstown
2:20 Min or Identity Thief ? Who knows !! – but we
will find out later this afternoon…
This
is a cracking contest – and it says much for the quality of the big two, that
Tully East can be backed at 28/1…
Assuming there are no spills (never guaranteed in a
novice chase), then the battle for third place, could be as interesting as the
battle for first.
I
would favour the aforementioned Tully East to get the better of Ordinary World
and Three Stars.
I’m not sure how you could profit from that though – so it’s
probably just a race to watch and savour…
2:55 If he was any kind of a price, then I would
be quite interested in Riviera Sun in this – particularly with the defection of
Coolaghknock Glebe.
I spent a bit of time trying to figure out why Mark Walsh
was riding Riviera Sun (and not Coolaghknock Glebe) – but now it is immaterial
(I couldn’t decide if it was out of choice – or because of weight
issues).
On
his most recent run, Riviera Sun was pipped by Westerner Point, following a poor
jump at the last.
A
4lb weight rise for that effort doesn’t seem unduly harsh – and he looks the one
to beat.
That
said, I could see Dysios getting closer to him today.
He
won this race 12 months ago and looks to have been primed for a repeat
performance today.
He is a big danger today – whilst you also have to respect
the chances of novice Bal D’Arc off a mark of just 133.
I
think Riviera Sun is the most likely winner – and I might have been prepared to
take a chance at a price.
However 9/2 just seems to short in a big field with at
least 2 serious dangers….
Huntingdon
1:20 Elkstone caught the eye on his seasonal debut
– also at Huntington.
That
race was over 3 miles – and he jumped beautifully, until falling at the third
last.
He
looked as if he was beginning to tire when he fell, so I wasn’t surprised to see
him dropped in trip last time – though I was a little surprised to see him
dropped fully a mile, and so running over the minimum.
I
was also a bit surprised to see him running at Towcester, which is not course
well suited to front runners.
Despite being sent off favourite, Elkstone disappointed –
weakening quickly when headed.
I
would have some reservations about him again today.
He’s back at Huntingdon,
which should suit: but again racing over 2 miles. He will also face serious
competition for the lead, from likely favourite, Caprice D’Anglais.
I
guess it could work in his favour, if he is prepared to track the pace – but
I’ve no idea whether he will be amenable to that.
On
balance, there is too much guess work to get seriously involved – I’m happy to
make him a mention though (in addition to being an eye catcher !)
Down Royal
12:20 Moonshine Lad was an eye catcher on his most
recent run, in a decent beginners chase at Fairyhouse, at the start of this
month.
He
travelled strongly through that race – but couldn’t quite get to the leaders
over the final few fences.
Todays race looks like it could be just as strong, with
Art of Payroll, Burgas and Falcon Crest all looking like potentially serious
rivals.
That
said, I fully expect Moonshine Lad to run another big race.
I
couldn’t consider tipping in a race like this – but now the formal mentions are
back, that is less of a concern !
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead
!
TVB
Advice Summary
Tips
AP
Kemp 3:15 Tea for Two 0.25pt EW 33/1
BRT
Kemp 1:30 Max Ward 0.25pt win 13/2
BRT
Kemp 3:45 Moscato 0.25pt win 10/1
DT
Weth 2:25 Bon Enfant 0.25pt win 8/1
DT
Winc 3:25 Bears Rails 0.25pt win 6/1
Mentions
Kemp
2:05 Minella Daddy (O )
Weth
1:50 Wakander (S )
MR
1:10 Moscow Me (C )
MR
1:15 Masterplan (C )
Leop
2:55 Riviera Sun (P )
Hunt
1:20 Elkstone (S )
DR
12:20 Moonshine Lad (O )
Eye Catchers
Kemp
3:15 Tea for Two
Kemp
3:45 Rothman
Weth
1:50 Henri Parry Morgan
Weth
1:50 Our Kaempfer
Hunt
1:20 Elkstone
DR
12:20 Moonshine Lad
